Smartphone market-share vs profit-share visualized
Interesting visualization of smartphone market-share vs profit-share and how it's changed from 2007 to 2010. Also interesting how survey results use terms like Android vs. iPhone while the actual business metrics always seem to break down by manufacturer (notice it's Apple, not iPhone or iOS above, and no Android is mentioned, though Moto, Sammy, et al are front and center).
What I'm curious about is whether consumers think they're buying an iPhone or iPhone, an Android phone or a Motorola or HTC phone, or an AT&T or Verizon phone? For Apple it doesn't matter much in the US (or internationally with unlocked models now available pretty much everywhere), but for Google and Microsoft (when Windows Phone 7 launches), what phone do mainstream consumers think they have? Do they know a Droid Eris is an HTC Hero and that's why they bought it or do they just know it's on Verizon and does apps?
For developers, manufacturer certainly isn't anywhere nearly as important as platform (iOS vs. Android) because, with a few exceptions to insure compatibility between devices, they're targeting OS not hardware. In that case, however, iPhone isn't a device unto itself because iOS apps also work on the extremely popular iPod touch and iPad, meaning iOS smartphone market share (i.e. iPhone) isn't the whole story.
That I've spent this whole post focusing on Google and their partners and Apple is also strangely consistent with the directions of them arrows on that chart. With Windows Phone 7 launching this month, new webOS 2.0 hardware next year, and BlackBerry on a hot new QNX OS sometime in the future could make it change again by 2012, which is great for consumers.
(And Microsoft, it's still not to late to launch as Xphone with a Halo Special Edition right on the shelf at AT&T across from iPhone. Really.)
See, we shouldn't be "fans" of a manufacturer or platform -- though we can certainly find one or the other better suited to our current needs -- and fight over them. Manufacturers and platform makers should be "fans" of users and fight over us by making the best, least crippled, most advanced, powerful, and delightful products they can, with great services and killer customer support.
Because momentum -- and money -- will go with those arrows.
[asymco, thanks everyone who sent this in!]
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A few years into using any one of these smartphones and you kinda get locked into it. I've used an iphone for about 2.5 years now and have about $150 in apps. I'm not interested in switching to another platform and having to spend another gob of money to rebuy apps. I think Apple getting into this market early has guaranteed their continued success as a result of this. however I never see anyone really talk about this aspect of the equation.
Apple is never going to be surpassed in the phone industry. They are just way ahead of the game.
@Lag
I feel you. I "frequently" speak to people about investing in platforms, not just a given device. The investment makes you less likely to switch platforms, but hopefully a smart investment saves you money because you're happy where you are and don't have to keeping repurchasing apps and accessories. Few seem yo get this...or care.
With that kind of thinking (or lack thereof) it makes sense that so many companies are trying to get into the mobile game.
The masses pick the carrier and then pick a phone--preferably a cute one. Only geeks know what a platform or OS is. The iPhone is a slight exception, because of it's huge name recognition. But if a person is turned off enough about AT&T, they'll go to a Verizon store and believe the sales person that an Android phone is the same thing.
@Poop
"Never" is a VERY lonnnnnng time.
Webvex,
That's only true of phones. There will be plenty of people who buy iPads and Android devices on Verizon who hate AT&T. Apple still gets a high profit off those people.
Cost of investment is a big thing and a reason why Android actually holds the potential for longer term advantage. It's both cross manufacturer and cross carrier supported giving it more variety for attracting more users.
We'll have to see how RIM does with their new OS's, if they can properly carry the users' application investments into their new designs they could stay on top in the enterprise sector while gaining new customers in the consumer sector.
WP7 also has potential similar to Android if it can drive adoption but we'll have to see how well that works out since it's entering the game pretty much as a new platform.
WebOS is in kind of a different position were it's had time to mature and gain devout followers similar to iOS but unlike iOS hasn't seen the needed hardware support from it's solo manufacturer. Now that HP owns it though that has potential to turn around especially if HP continues to give official "unofficial" support for the homebrew community that developed around webOS as it was maturing.
Breaking news! the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Apple has reached a deal to sell the Iphone on Verizon Wireless in First Quarter of 2011! it's a done deal folks! So Long ATT Exclusivity! That Iphone marketshare just got a big boost upward! Apple Stock is Rocking to all time highs now and ATT is getting hit! Gonna be a fun Iphone Live tonight!
I who definitely like to see a manufacturer breakdown.
bummed to not hear t-mobiles name called...
I'm waiting to see if it's a world phone like it's been rumored to be! I guess Sprint and T MO will have similar announcements in the future! It may run on CDMA/ SVDMA for Voice and Data simultaneously! can't wait for the specs on this baby!
You can answer your consumer platform vs manufacturer question simply by looking at your sister sites -- there is a reason, among multi manufacturer phones, that you have an "AndroidCentral" and "WMExperts", and not "HTCHangout," "MotorolaMavens," and "EverybodySamsungTonight." Consumers typically rank your criteria as follows:
1) Carrier first.
2) Then platform, though for many in the US the iPhone makes elevates platform concerns to 1a - I for one, am putting up with relatively poor AT&T service in my area because I wanted an iPhone. Still, if I was in a slightly worse AT&T area I would not have bought my iPhones.
9999999) Last, manufacturer. With the possible exception of Nokia, nobody buys a phone based on the manufacturer, and even then, those concern are only on the low end, where feature sets are all in parity and the hardware reliability is the only differentiating factor.
Of these, only Platforms inspire passion and fans. Why? Carriers and Manufacturers are infrastructure. Critically important, but pass/fail -- consumers only concern is that the infrastructure meets their critical need. Carriers only rank above platform because carriers differ so wildly based on geography that consumers have to make sure when buying the carrier works well enough for them, or the whole stack fails. If the carrier meets that need, however, platform -- iOS, Android, RIM, WinMo -- trumps all.
i like iphones and i don't have an android phone but proof it's a real competitor is that Rene has his panties in a bunch three times a day at the mere mention that android does anything better then iphone or apple and seems to have a daily article that amounts to "Bu..bu..but iphone rules."
Why is Android not making these companies any money? It's not like they are undercutting, Android phonies are very expensive!
This makes perfect sense. Apple and RIM are in a zone where they charge a premium because well, you buy an iphone for iOS and a BBerry for BBerry OS. They have control over their devices. We can see that android manufactures are gaining market share, but profits suck because the development costs as higher (its still new) and they are taking less margin to gain that market share so they can say they are "as successful as RIM or APPLE." Neither of which will be true because of the weak profitability.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/05/android-is-numero-uno-among-us-phone-...
http://www.businessinsider.com/android-iphone-market-share-2010-8
Great article Rene, they used it on Cult of Mac, it's cool to see [TiPb] on a different blog. I totally agree about marketshare. The media are Democrats and Fandroids. They love to run with a iPhone is second story. However, market-share is different because they have yet to come out w/an Android touch. Come on people! I'm sure some people would buy an Android device that's not a phone. While there might be more Android phones out there, iOS probably still has em beat because of iPod Touch & iPad. And that's where it counts to keep and attract developers.
Not that it's all about market-share, but if we're counting, Apple still has it. And yeah, iPhone will be on ascension w/multiple carriers. I know that alot of people want an iPhone & can't have it b/c of carrier and others have a Droid b/c they can't have iPhone. I think Apple was stupid to wait this long, that $400 check from ATT per phone is'nt worth it since there are now alot of Droid users who will have to switch. But they will, at least a fair amount will, and more people will get iPhones. Just my $.02
@ WEST: "lonnnnnng" is not a word stupid. anyways APPLE is the best there is.
I just came to the iPhone from a BlackBerry and will never go back. I was waiting for a iPhone to make the phone I wanted. iPhone 4 was it. Even if Verizon got the phone I wouldn't switch from ATT especially with the recent news that Verizon was secretly overcharging it's customers.
@Trevor
I guess you missed the many devices Android is being put on beyond PMPs and phones. Not to mention every dev and analyst's thoughts of the long term benefit of developing for Android...
Why must everyone always turn this to a freaking war. It's sad and childish.
Android is succeeding. iOS is succeeding. Everyone is is just there really, lol.
If one is bound to fail, it will happen. Until then...shut up and enjoy your phone.
Saying "Mines is bigger" all the time really makes it look like you're trying to boost an inferior product's ego.
A simple refute for the "people don't look at platform" debate...
Windows Mobile was on HTC/Samsung/Moto...and failed. Lost profit and market share.
Android are on the same exact labels...and they're growing.
So the fact that Android is so popular proves that consumers pay attention to what's on the phone. Or else Android would've failed since WinMo failed under the same names.
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