10 Million iPhone March

Confusion. Confusion. Did Steve Jobs say Apple would sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, or during 2008?

What's the diff? About 6 months and a 3+ million head start.

See, the first scenario means Apple has roughly 18 months -- from the June 29th, 2007 release day to December 31st, 2008 -- to move the 10 million units. The second scenario allows for just 12 months -- from January 1st to December 31st, 2008 -- to move the same number. Clear? No? Don't worry. Even the Macalope is confused.

What's interesting is that while the first scenario -- the 18 months -- does count the initial 6 month honeymoon surge of 3+ million, that ends up making continued sales a little more pessimistic -- only 6+ million for the entire calendar 2008. The second scenario allows for increasing sales over time, something Apple and their shareholders no doubt expect as more countries, and 3G come online.

Speaking of dozens of more countries and a the most anticipated new gadget on the planet, Macworld's Jason Snell sums up his thoughts for the 10 Million iPhone March thusly:

In my back-of-the-envelope exercise, Apple sells 10.2 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. And I stress, these are extremely conservative numbers. If I had to place a bet, I’d probably say that Apple will sell more like 2.2 million phones in the current quarter, more like 3 million in the following quarter, and five million in the holiday quarter. That guess adds up to almost 12 million iPhones in calendar year 2008.

Conservative is right. In fact, Apple is famous for being conservative, and they're predicting "only" 10 million.

My opinion? iPhone 3G will be a monster.

What do you think?