How big is the Apple Watch market?

That's the question many people, analyst and consumer alike, have been asking both before and after pre-orders kicked off on April 10. We've got experience now with everything from phones to tablets to set top boxes, but the Apple Watch is something new. To try and find out, Goldman Sachs asked over 1,000 "nationally representative" consumers about how they see the Apple Watch fitting in their lives. The answer, according to Bloomberg:

  1. encouraging initial demand, with +11% of iPhone users "very likely" to purchase an Apple Watch this year,
  2. regular watch wearers are among the most likely to order an Apple or other smart watch, suggesting high displacement rates for traditional watches from smart watch adoption,
  3. young consumers are substantially more likely to buy an Apple Watch than older consumers, and
  4. those likely to buy a smart watch most often indicate Fossil, Seiko, Casio, Rolex, Timex, and TAG Heuer are the watch brands they wear today.

Anecdotally, I know that even among my non-tech enthusiast friends and family members, interest in the Apple Watch has only increased since the new ad started running and try-ons began.