Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore has taken a red pen to IDC's graph of the personal computer market and corrected it to include Apple's iPad. The difference, of course, is industry reversing.
2011 was supposed to be the year of the Android tablet. One year later, Android tablets have failed to meet expectations and for the most part have been unsuccessful. This year, tablets had a much smaller presence as vendors appear to be placing greater emphasis on Windows 8. We expect Windows 8 ARM tablets to ramps slowly as most Apps require rewriting for ARM-based tablet hardware. We remain skeptical that Win 8 tablets will gain much traction this year (App rewrites take time / developer ecosystem support). As a result, we expect the move away from Android tablet investment and a slow ramp of Win 8 tablets to create a favorable competitive backdrop for Apple's forthcoming iPad 3.
IDC and other metrics companies have struggled comically with their reporting since the introduction of the iPad, classifying it as a "media tablet" and inventing a "non-iPad tablet" space (where, apparently, no one can hear rival executives scream). When Windows 8 tablets begin to ship over the course of the next year, they'll either have to reassess how they handle the iPad... or come up with an even more distorted "non-iPad possibly ARM-based Windows tablet" market.