Here at TiPB we've covered the heck out of the Flash on the iPhone debacle. Will it, won't it, can it, should it, omgvidz!1 and privacy nightmares. But it just won't stop. Current case in point, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen was once again let near a live mic:

We have a version [of (Mobile?) Flash] that’s working on the emulation. This is still on the computer and you know, we have to continue to move it from a test environment onto the device and continue to make it work. So we are pleased with the internal progress that we’ve made to date.

Great. Only Flash for OS X was never fully optimized by Adobe, making it a resource hog and increasing the bugginess of browsers (any guesses on how it will run on the iPhone?). Also, Apple hasn't approached Adobe to do a MobileSafari plugin anyway, (though iPhone 2.0 seems to include a YouTube plugin...), and the iPhone SDK end user license still seems to disallow something like Flash (or Java) from running their own code. So, this means precisely what, exactly?

For those hoping to get Flex apps up on the iPhone, Apple already has an SDK and won't allow a "competitive" dev environment to murky up their Cocoa Touch and SproutCore plans. From a dev point of view, sure it may limit apps from people already familiar with Flex, the same way it limits those already familiar with Java. While this may sacrifice the ability to leverage code from other platforms, most SDK demos rave about how fast porting has been, and really keen devs will just pick up the aforementioned Cocoa Touch environment and run with it anyway.

For those who just want them their vidz, Apple seems to be banking on YouTube via H.264 app and plugin being enough to stop a general revolt while they establish their "next big thing" mobile platform without Adobe's tech being invited to the party. Will that be enough? Depends on how much people want everything beyond YouTube, from Hulu to pr0n. (And the obnoxious banner adds that will inevitably come with it).

Apple and Adobe need each other but also don't seem to have the best of relationships. They're both gambling big time, with huge stakes. Adobe has a more flexible hand (no pun intended) but Apple has a poker face that makes a mannequin look overly emotive.

My guess? No Flash for the iPhone remains the status quo. What's yours?

UPDATE:

Iconfactory and Twitteriffic luminary Craig Hockenberry posts the funniest Flash on iPhone tweet ever on Twitter:

Hoping that Adobe will use a flash:// URL scheme. Would make it very easy to avoid on both the iPhone AND desktop.

Meanwhile, Adobe responds on their blog.

UPDATE 2:

Kontra ponders if this is all really a fight over the future of user interfaces, with Adobe trying to set their own cross-device conventions.

And Gruber points out even Apple's own Quicktime content doesn't run in-line in Mobile Safari, but launches a [Quicktime X?] player.

Which raises an interesting point: How would running video be handled in MobileSafari anyway? If you tried to swipe, scroll, pinch zoom, double-tap, etc., wouldn't it create enormous resource demands on what's still a small, mobile chipset? And if they lock the multi-touch down anytime Flash content (including ads) pop up, it makes the browser otherwise useless. Seems this would almost guarantee the need for an external player. (Or do the video game demos show that it could handle this well enough?)

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Daring Fireball, via Digital Arts, brings word that Sun hasn't stopped trying to bring a Java Virtual Machine (JVM) to the iPhone even though:

Apple has not been publicly receptive to having Java on its popular new device. There have been questions about whether Apple's iPhone SDK agreement would permit this. The JVM potentially could sidestep Apple's App Store program for dispensing iPhone applications.

And while Sun's efforts continue, they're also hedging their bets with Innaworks, who produces alcheMo, which may let Java programs compile as native iPhone apps, ready for App Store:

[I]nitially targeted at games publishers. Now in a beta release, alcheMo for iPhone can be used to port Java ME mobile games to iPhone and iPod touch without the need for further manual adjustments. The product features an optimizing translator to convert Java ME application source code to equivalent source code for iPhone, according to the Innaworks press statement on the product.

While Apple's Cocao Touch development sounds like a more chocolaty, and much sweeter beverage than Java, Sun sure does seem determined. Of course, determination has a tendency to crash and explode in Matrix-like bullet time when it strikes up against the Zen-like immovability of one Steven P. Jobs.

I don't think we'll be seeing the steaming coffee mug on the iPhone any time soon. You?

Hot on the heals of the Microsoft MacBU (makers of Office 2008 for Mac) talking iPhone SDK, comes word (via Fortune) that Microsoft's recently acquired TellMe division, which specializes in voice recognition, is also eyeing Apple's little market grabber:

“If the SDK supports [voice recording and location-based information],” [general manager Mike] McCue told Fortune in February, “we’re absolutely going to get a version out there as soon as we can, get TellMe out there on the iPhone.”

Of course, limits placed on the iPhone SDK may well make this impossible without the mythical "special dispensation" from Apple. We do know Bill Gates loves him some "natural interfaces", though, and who knows how long it will be until VistaMob 7 or Surface ship, so is this like back in the early days when Microsoft got all GUI on Mac Excel? Or is Microsoft really all just about the software profits, man? What do you think?

GearLive reported Flash for the iPhone was immanent. Adobe retorted that it was all up to Steve Jobs. His Steveness resorted to telling investors that Flash desktop was too big, Flash Lite was too small, and they were missing a product that was juuuusssst right.

Well, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen hopes Apple's newly released SDK will help Adobe deliver that middle ground, with or without Jobs' blessing. Speaking to investors, Narayen said (via Apple Insider):

"We believe Flash is synonymous with the Internet experience, and we are committed to bringing Flash to the iPhone. We have evaluated (the software developer tools) and we think we can develop an iPhone Flash player ourselves."

Hopefully without those peskyprivacy and security problems, b'okay?

Given the restrictions imposed on 3rd party apps, unless Apple gives Adobe "special dispensation" it seems unlikely that even Adobe could get Flash working in an unplugged-in, sandbox environment, but we'll see.

Eerily similar to Sun's Java announcement immediately following the iPhone SDK launch, all that remains now (in terms of rival interactive development platforms) is Microsoft's Silverlight. Balmer, get your dance shoes!

Sun, the company that loves Java so much they made it their stock symbol, has announced that they've looked at the new Apple SDK and believe they can use it to bring Java VM (virtual machine) ME (micro addition) to the iPhone:

"We're going to make sure that the JVM offers the Java applications as much access to the native functionality of the iPhone as possible," said Java VP, Eric Klein.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs, having previously lavished Java with such praise as (paraphrased) "a ball and chain OS that nobody uses and isn't worth supporting on the iPhone", is no doubt in deep mediation over the news.

Java, the technology that enables everything from game-lets on other mobile phones to Blu-Ray's interactivity layer, while not widely adored in the techsphere, is widely available and offers some cross-platform portability advantages for programers (who want to use their code on multiple OS's).

Klein also mentioned the possibility of not only JavaFX (which supports Flash-like animation), but the full desktop Java implementation in the future.

Though Sun says they will deploy JVM via the AppStore coming with iPhone firmware 2.0, how exactly they will create what could be a competitive development environment is unclear.

Related news that may or may not provide some hints, however, comes from Apple itself:

..the iPhone SDK beta [...] includes a beta version of llvm-gcc 4.2 as part of the included Xcode 3.1 beta.

LLVM (low level virtual machine), may allow for this functionality, and will also help with (according to Ars Technica's Siracusa), "Faster compiled code, faster code compilation, more metadata for the IDE, better portability, easier to improve all of the above."