iPhone has decimated Verizon's growth, Google is uncertain ally, and Android is simply not competitive with iPhone to the degree Verizon may have had to give in to Apple's demands in order to launch a Verizon iPhone is 2011. That according to Horace Dediu of asymco who breaks down the numbers Matthew Goodman, a research analyst at ITG Investment, claims may represent Verizon's monthly sales figures by device.
If the data is accurate (big if), Dediu says RIM's BlackBerry and Palm's webOS fell considerably and Android manufacturers hit a wall in August following the wide spread availability of iPhone 4.
I wrote this up as a lack of competitiveness. It may seem provocative, but I define competitiveness narrowly: the competition is for a purchase decision on equal terms. These purchase decisions are fiendishly complex to predict, but the data speaks: whether it’s due to brand, visibility or performance and in spite of “antennagate” the iPhone is cleaning up.
While Android didn't rescue Verizon, it did put them in bed with Google, a capricious evil compared to Apple's more predictable evil, currently in service of AT&T. That's why the same August period might also explain the uptick in iPhone on Verizon rumors. What of BlackBerry, Android, et. al when (if) Verizon turns to iPhone?
BlackBerry and Droid have been reliant on Verizon's promotion, not as much RIM or Motorola/HTC generated marketing. If those marketing dollars shift to iPhone and if Verizon's customers shift to iPhone, what does that do for the competitive market?
my conclusion remains that iPhone will find at least 8 million new users with Verizon. The analysis above give me confidence to increase the upper bound to possibly 12 million.