iPhone eventSource: Apple

What you need to know

  • A Credit Suisse analyst believes iPhone shipments may have fallen in China.
  • Matt Cabral says shipments are down by 35% year on year in November.
  • It says it has seen double digit declines in China for both October and November.

A Credit Suisse analyst says that iPhone shipments may have fallen by 35% in November compared to last year.

As reported by Street Insider, Credit Suisse's Matt Cabral says there has been a meaningful decline in iPhone shipments in China in November. According to the report:

Cabral noted iPhone shipments in China dropped 35.4% y/y in November (per MIIT "nonAndroid" data), significantly lagging the 0.2% y/y increase in the broader Chinese Smartphone market.

The analyst said while the monthly data can be volatile, this is the second straight double-digit decline (-10.3% y/y in Oct) and total shipments in China since the launch of the iPhone 11 family are now down 7.4% y/y (Sept-Nov).

As 9to5Mac notes, this does not necessarily reflect iPhone sales in the region, as shipment and sales do not directly correspond. Furthermore, the most recent iPhone 11 range began shipping in mid-September, which means it has been on sale for much longer than the iPhone XR had been this time last year. The XR was released at the end of October, meaning that November in China saw a rush of first-month enthusiasm for the iPhone. This could explain why the iPhone 11, which has been out much longer, may not be seeing the same November performance.

The initial report suggests that this is the second consecutive monthly decline in total iPhone shipments, with a 10.3% decline in October. That, coupled with the fact that the smartphone market in China as a whole grew very slightly, has lead Cabral at least to suggest that the phone has slumped.

Of course, as indicated the data in these cases can be "volatile", and given the disparity of the when the iPhone was launched this year as opposed to last year, it may be that Apple's China woes are being overexaggerated in this instance.