Take this one with a 9.7-inch grain of salt, but according to Citi analyst Richard Gardner, Apple has overcome all technical hurdles and will be releasing the iPad 3 in February sporting a full 2048×1536 Retina display.

According to “several sources” the next iPad will launch in February, and it will sport a screen with double the resolution of the current model. Gardner says, “there do not appear to be any significant technical hurdles remaining” to prevent a launch of a high-resolution iPad, despite rumors to the contrary.

TiPb previously heard Apple had considered moving iPad 3 up to a fall 2011 release but due to scale issues with the Retina display had moved it back to a spring 2012 slot.

Bearing in mind analysts are often only as reliable as flipping a coin, this shouldn’t dissuade anyone who wants a current generation iPad 2 for the holidays from getting an iPad 2 for the holidays. If you can hold out, however, the original iPad was released in April 2010, and the iPad 2 hit in March of this year, so the cycle could well continue. (Or Apple could move iPad 3 to the June slot, keeping iPhone in its new fall position — there’s simply no way to know until Apple makes the announcement.)

Source: BusinessInsider

Digitimes rumormongers that Apple expected to launch an 4G LTE powered “iPhone 4S” (sigh) this year (double sigh) but has had to push it back to 2012 due to problems with the Qualcomm chipsets.

Apple is likely to delay the launch of its LTE-enabled iPhones to 2012, said the sources, noting that the industry had also long been skeptical about the launch of LTE iPhones in 2011 as the implementation of LTE networks has not yet matured.

Of course, Apple wasn’t expected to ship an LTE iPhone in 2011, as they themselves have expressed — justifiable — concerns over battery life in current generation chipsets, and the proper Qualcomm radio isn’t expected to be available until iPhone 6 in 2012 anyway.

The 5th generation iPhone is expected to be announced and shipped sometime in the September/October timeframe in the US, though why on Jobs’ green earth would they call it iPhone 4S when it’s the 5th generation iPhone? (iPhone 3GS was the 3rd generation iPhone, a problem that needed fixing because they called the 2nd generation iPhone, iPhone 3G.)

So, yeah, let’s take that bit with a China sized grain of salt. What’s more interesting, and hopefully likely, is the second part — that it will boast an 8mp rear camera. Let’s hope that’s matched up with a new FaceTime HD up front.

[Digitimes]

Forbes reports that Jefferies & Co analyst Peter Misek has proudly entered our iPhone 5 release pool , adding his voice to the many others that claim Apple will be releasing the iPhone 5 in September. Sort of. Misek states Apple will be going with ‘iPhone 4S’ as the name, following in the footsteps of the 3G to 3GS upgrade, and will not support LTE because the Qualcomm chipset isn’t ready just yet. He also believes Sprint and T-Mobile will be onboard at launch.

According to our industry checks, the device should be called iPhone 4S and include minor cosmetic changes, better cameras, A5 dual-core processor, and HSPA+ support [...] As for LTE, he says the Qualcomm LTE chipset Apple would have used “is currently not achieving yields sufficient for inclusion in the iPhone 5.”

But he also says that “industry checks indicate Apple will likely announce Sprint, T-Mobile, and China Mobile as new carriers.”

Adding China Mobile would further propel Apple’s presence in the Chinese smartphone market. Rumors of the ‘iPhone 4S’ name picked up last month when some developers were reportedly receiving beefed up iPhone 4 units for testing purposes.

Expectations that the next iPhone will be released in September have been mounting, but Apple could always have a surprise up their sleeve at WWDC in June.

What are your thoughts?

[Forbes]

Continuing our policy on having fun with iPhone 5 rumors, TiPb is once again adding an analyst to our iPhone 5 release pool. This time it’s Concord Securities as reported by Apple Insider:

[Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's] checks with supply chain sources indicated that the next handset from Apple will not feature an all-new-design, but rather only “slight modifications” from the iPhone 4. Specifically, Kuo has heard that the iPhone 5 will include the faster A5 processor already found in the iPad 2, as well as a higher resolution 8 megapixel rear camera. He has also been told that Apple will switch to a Qualcomm baseband for both GSM and CDMA models, along with an improved antenna design.

Kuo says production will begin in September, which would match up with rumors of iPhone 5 only being released this fall instead of its previous summer slot. He also thinks iPhone 6 will bring more dramatic changes, so this year could be like 2009 was with the iPhone 3GS.

So there you go, Concord, your entry had been added to our iPhone 5 release pool. We’ll see how you do come launch announcement!

[AppleInsider]

Will we get an iPhone 5 in June? We’ve gotten a new iPhone announced at WWDC every year since 2007 yet right after Apple announced this year’s WWDC rumors started to fly it would be new hardware free. Could these rumors be based on inside information, or could it just be en vogue to predict delays on all Apple products? iPad 2 was delayed, right? Only no, it wasn’t. Now rumor has it iOS 5 is delayed and iPhone 5 are delayed. Only will they be?

If there isn’t any inside information at play here than the crux of the “iPhone 5 delayed” rumors is Apple emphasizing software and not hardware in their WWDC 2011 announcement press release. Apple puts out one of these WWDC announcements every year, so let’s take a look:

• WWDC 2010: Apple emphasizes iPad development and iPhone OS 4 (iOS 4), we get iPhone 4 [PR link]
• WWDC 2009: Apple emphasizes Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0 development, we get iPhone 3GS [PR link]
• WWDC 2008: Apple emphasizes OS X Leopard and iPhone OS X, we get iPhone 3G [PR Link]
• WWDC 2007: Apple emphasizes OS X, we get iPhone (pre-announced at Macworld) [PR link]

All those press releases emphasized software, no hardware, and yet we still got a new iPhone. Every year. So again, if Apple isn’t leaking news that there’s won’t be an iPhone 5 at WWDC in order to re-set expectations, then a WWDC press release in and of itself is meaningless as an indicator.

Rumors are fun. Rumors fill news cycles. However there’s a growing pattern of rumors about Apple product delays that just seem… increasingly inorganic. Rumor. Link. Smash rumor. Link. Rinse. Repeat.

iOS 5 and iPhone 5 may well be delayed. But I’ll believe it when I don’t see it.

UPDATE: Both TechCrunch (which has a mixed record) and the Loop (which has a good record) are saying no new hardware, including no iPhone 5, at WWDC this year.

UPDATE 2: John Paczkowski from All Things D is also suggesting expectations be re-calibrated.

3 million Verizon iPhones are being built in December for launch early in 2011, according to Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro. Now I’ll preface this by saying I won’t believe any more Verizon iPhone stories until I see one in Steve Jobs hand, but the amount of noise around this potential product launch is only growing.

Given Apple’s ability to control the iPhone and prevent carriers from installing bloatware, their own app stores, replacing search engines, etc. — i.e. exactly what Verizon and others have done to Android in recent months, it’s easy to think a deal still won’t get made. Now that Google has essential destroyed Apple’s efforts to disintermediate the carriers and handed them a powerful, modern, completely mutilate-able OS on a silver platter, would Verizon even want Apple’s iPhone?

There’s a lot of money to be had by both parties, however, and that sometimes makes for even stranger bedfellows than politics.

Fidacaro also said Apple is building 7 million iPads this quarter, with 4.75 million of those expected to be sold and the rest used to fill the supply chain and prevent the type of constrictions we saw following its debut earlier in the year.

What do you think, any actual analytics behind this analyst predictions or just more sound and fury?

[AppleInsider]

According to NPD, more smartphones were sold in the US that run Android than smartphones than run iPhone OS in Q1 2010. BlackBerry remains in the number one spot. According to NPD. Apple isn’t a fan of the metrics being used:

“This is a very limited report on 150,000 US consumers responding to an online survey and does not account for the more than 85 million iPhone and iPod touch customers worldwide,” Apple spokesperson Natalie Harrison, told The Loop. “IDC figures show that iPhone has 16.1 percent of the smartphone market and growing, far outselling Android on a worldwide basis. We had a record quarter with iPhone sales growing by 131 percent and with our new iPhone OS 4.0 software coming this summer, we see no signs of the competition catching up anytime soon.”

Since Android can be found in a variety of form factors on all four US carriers, and since Verizon offers it as part of their BOGO (buy one, get one free) promotions, just like the BlackBerry, even if the NPD numbers hold up they’re not surprising.

That the iPhone’s market share is so high in the US, given they’re on one carrier with one form factor, is actually more surprising — only that it happens so often now we’ve stopped being surprised, especially after Apple’s last financial results statement.

And yes, we’re tired of beating that old horse as much as you’re tired of watching it get beaten, but Apple cares only about market share as much as it amplifies profit share. Google isn’t making direct money off of Android (though they do off monetizing services like search, which they also monetize on the iPhone) and on the low-margin, BOGO devices that give BlackBerry its lead, they’re not making Apple-sized margins either (they likely do better on Bold-class devices).

Needless to say, Apple’s not letting AT&T do BOGO for iPhone. For Apple, the iPhone is a premium product and they’d much rather maintain their huge lead in profit share than line discount bins for the sake of per-unit OS market share.

[Android Central, the Loop]

Yes, the iPad won’t even ship until exactly a week from today but that doesn’t mean there aren’t folks out there already busy starting “iPad family” rumors replete with iPad nano and iPad HD no less. No surprise, right? “iPhone family” rumors have been dredged up almost yearly by all manner of Apple analysts. Yet there’s still no “iPhone nano” (or iPhone HD for that matter). So, forgive us if no breath is being held…

For future link-back’s sake, however, here’s what Dan “Fake Steve” Lyons quoted in Newsweek (via 9to5Mac):

Paul Saffo, a tech forecaster and professor at Stanford University, expects Apple to roll out a family of other iPad models—a small one the size of a paperback, a big one the size of two magazine pages—perhaps as soon as this fall. (Apple won’t confirm, natch.)

And this before we even start 4th generation iPhone silly season. Rumor fatigue much?

(Lyons’ summation of the existing iPad, however, is interesting and worth a read).

UPDATE 2: Apple confirms the late March ship-stimate to Wired [via @arsinfiniteloop].

UPDATE 1: Seth Weintraub at 9to5Mac puts up a thoughtful reminder about the nature of analyst notes:

If [analysts] do produce something publicly, that means one of two things: (1) Their clients have had the information for weeks and have had time to invest accordingly. (2)They are trying to artificially change the price of Apple’s stock because they have previously told their clients to invest based on the good/bad news that they are about to relay.

ORIGINAL: Digital Daily is reporting that, according to Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek, Apple might be facing manufacturing problems that will lead to constrained supplies of the iPad, or even a delay in its launch:

“We have … heard that the upcoming iPad launch may be somewhat limited as a manufacturing bottleneck has impacted production of Apple’s newest device. An unspecified production problem at the iPad’s manufacturer, Hon Hai Precision, will likely limit the launch region to the US and the number of units available to roughly 300K in the month of March, far lower than the company’s initial estimate of 1,000K units. The delay in production ramp will likely impact Apple’s April unit estimate of 800K as well. It is also possible that, given the limited number of units available in March, the launch will be delayed for a month.”

Chief Operating Officer, Tim Cook runs Apple’s supply chain with more precision than an aluminum unibody chassis, however, so would a problem this large really be allowed to happen? DIgital Daily claims it’s a “big if” as to whether or not Misek is correct. Best case he isn’t. Worst case, despite Apple’s still current claim of the iPad shipping in late March, we may only see it in April.

Does this affect your odds of buying one either way?

Okay, that headline about how an analyst thinks Apple should lower the price and add new features next June/July when they release the 4th generation iPhone (not iPhone 4G, that’s a couple years and an LTE network away) is only semi-facetious. Apple has lowered up-front costs and increased features on every generation of iPhone, after all. Last year the iPhone 3G dropped to $99 and the iPhone 3GS added video recording, hardware encryption, voice control, and a host of other things — never mind iPhone 3.0. According to AppleInsider, however, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley has two things more specific in mind.

“We expect Apple to launch new iPhones in June that offer both a lower total cost of ownership and new functionality, potentially including gesture-based technology.”

We’ll leave the part about gestures alone; just file it under “reads the same patent applications we do” and move right along. Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), however, is interesting because in 2008, even as the iPhone 3G was offered at $199, the cost of the AT&T data plan rose to $30/m making the overall TCO (over the course of the 2-year contract) higher.

Now, if Apple wants the iPhone to battle it out with Nokia in emerging markets, TCO is vitally important. But Apple hasn’t historically chosen to battle it out in the low-end PC space, and their answer to netbooks wasn’t cheaper MacBooks but the iPad. Makes it tough to see them doing it with discount iPhones.

In the US, big, colorful charts show how much you can save in terms of TCO on other networks and devices. With the iPad coming, and tiered AT&T data plans coming with it, maybe it’s not unreasonable to think a reduction in TCO is in order — not just “everything unlimited” but “overall less expensive”. Then again, AT&T isn’t hurting for subscribers or iPhone sales, so where this downward pressure would come from, if not Apple or our simply wishing it so, is unclear.

What do you think? Any chance Apple will pull “magical new plans” out of AT&T for the 4th generation iPhone?

Credit Suisse Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin thinks we can expect Apple’s iPhone to remain exclusive to AT&T for an additional 12-18 months, long past some people’s expectations (and recent rumors). Not only will it remain exclusive, Chaplin says, but the delay will have a major negative impact on Verizon, causing him to lower his rating on Big Red from “Outperform” to “Neutral” and cut his share price target from $32 to $30.

“Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize,” Chaplin wrote. “We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the carriers and the other handset OEMs.”

Credit Suisse is 75% certain that AT&T will keep their stranglehold on iPhone for the rest of this calendar year.

“We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010,” Chaplin wrote. “Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.”

Those of us here at TiPb have often wondered “analyst” predictions were any more reliable than magic 8-ball results, so we will ask you, our readers — will we ever see an iPhone on Verizon or is Steve out to bury them for rejecting the iPhone the first time around? Sound off in the comments!

[Via Apple Insider]

Apple announces their Jan. 27 “Come see our latest creation” event, and like a big, rumor-filled moth to an increasingly rabid internet flame, rumors of a Verizon iPhone being part of it follow:

“We believe there is a good chance,” writes Canaccord Adams’ Peter Misek in a note to clients Wednesday, “that the ‘One more thing…’ part of next week’s presentation may include two iPhone-related announcements: namely, the release of iPhone OS 4.0 and the unveiling of iPhone 4G coming to Verizon in June.”

To be clear, TiPb still believes that, technologically, Apple will be able to produce a Verizon (i.e. CDMA) compatible iPhone by this June/July, but whether or not their exclusivity with AT&T will be over by then, and whether or not they can come to financial (subsidy) terms with Verizon is anyone’s guess.

Also, Misek no doubt means G4, as in 4th gen iPhone, not 4G as in 4G wireless, LTE networking, since he later states he only thinks we’ll see an LTE iPhone in 2011. And if iPhone 4.0 is “released” it will likely be a beta for developers, with the consumer “release” to follow a few months later as it has in years past.

So, anyone placing odds on a big, red iPhone next week?

[CNN/Fortune thanks Michael for the tip!]

From the now we’ve heard everything department, an analyst is “predicting” that the 4th generation iPhone‘s plastic casing will be multitouch enabled, just like Apple’s new Magic Mouse.

Not “predicted” of course is how it would work, and how it would filter out things like holding the iPhone for normal use vs. deliberately initiating a multitouch gesture on the back of the case.

Again, with Apple anything is possible, but is this desirable? Can you see Apple doing it?

The Palm Pre and Pixi have a multitouch area below the screen to enable consistent gestures for “back” and to bring up the app launcher. Is that preferable?

[Bloomberg via Macrumors]

Computerworld is rumoring that Apple’s allegedly-to-be-announced-January-27th iTablet/iSlate will run on Verizon‘s CDMA network according to… an analysts sources (!)

“The tablet will be supported by multiple [mobile] carriers,” said Brian Marshall of Broadpoint AmTech, citing unnamed sources he said were close to the situation. “Verizon and others,” he continued. “Definitely Verizon. I’ve been told that’s a certainty.”

Meanwhile, AppleInsider quotes another analyst who says, when it comes to the iPhone, Apple and Verizon can’t see eye-to-eye on pricing. Control-freaks the both of them, no one is yet blinking:

Currently, it is estimated that Apple gets a favorable $700 average selling price per iPhone, subsidized through exclusive carrier AT&T. Compare that with the ASP of the Motorola Droid, exclusive to Verizon, which costs an estimated $450 per sale.

Also, combined CDMA/GSM chips, which would let the iPhone run on both Verizon and GSM carriers like AT&T and most of the rest of the world, aren’t likely to be ready until the second half of 2010.

Hey, maybe Verizon will get a CDMA iTablet, but it can also be perpetually tethered to an AT&T/GSM iPhone! Sound off in the comments!

Harry McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — guesses (and photoshop concept art) as to just what Apple and Steve Jobs’ iPhone might turn out to be:

Remember the very first iPhone–the one that sold for $249, had an iconic click wheel, a cool slide-out keypad, and a unique two-battery design–and which ran on Apple’s very own nationwide wireless network? No, not the iPhone that Steve Jobs unveiled at Macworld Expo San Francisco on January 9th, 2007. It didn’t have any of those features. I’m talking about the one that was an ever-changing figment of the collective imagination of bloggers reporters, analysts, and others who wrote endlessly about the iPhone in the months before anyone outside of Apple knew much of anything–including whether or not the phone existed at all.

Flash forward and Michael Gartenberg on Engadget uses that article as a cautionary tale when it comes to Apple’s future, possible, universe dent’er, the iTablet (or iSlate):

A larger iPod touch or a small MacBook with a touch screen is simply not the next big thing for Apple — the goal is to appeal to 50 million customers, not 50 thousand. Perhaps that’s why there’s so much mystery: what we’re waiting for isn’t another failed ‘tweener device but something as different from what came before as the iPhone was to previous mobile phones.

Gartenberg also points out that, without even mentioning the existence of a tablet, Apple still owns all the mindshare in that space, even over real devices that have been announced and shipped.

That’s probably not by accident either.

Regarding all those iPhone on T-Mobile US stories clogging the interwebs lately: that’s all they are — stories. No leaked carrier roadmaps, no Cupertino commuters logging into popular Twitter apps via a T-Mobile IP. No Steven P. Jobs standing on a stage, announcing the CEO of T-Mobile, and a new, magenta (TM) iPhone.

It’s just an analyst who thinks AT&T will someday lose exclusivity and Verizon is all Droid‘ed up now, and T-Mobile is GSM like the iPhone (though not on the same 3G frequencies — d’oh!), so why not?

We know some of you already use an unlocked iPhone on T-Mobile’s 2.5G/EDGE network. We know a lot of you would like an alternative to AT&T. And we feel for you. We really, truly do.

But there’s no more to the story than that for now. In fact, there’s less.

[Still, many thanks to everyone who sent every version our way!]

Could Apple’s iPhone be destined for 3rd place in smartphone marketshare by 2012, trailing Nokia/Symbian’s 39% and Google Android‘s 14.5% with a paltry 13.7%? That’s what some analysts at Gartner are telling ComputerWorld, with Nokia already in the global lead, and Google’s wallet, cloud-services, rapid iteration of the OS, and variety of form-factors and UIs from multiple manufacturers. Rounding out the other players are Windows Mobile with 12.8%, RIM BlackBerry with 12.5%, various Linux mobiles with a collective 5.4%, and Palm webOS with 2.1%.

iPhone, projected at 71.5 million unites sold, doesn’t have Nokia’s existing footprint or Google’s services, but here’s the thing: a) it has Apple’s still-unmatched 360 degrees of ecosystem integration, b) will likely continue to improve at the same rate it has since the original iPhone 2G running 1.x with no apps or services in 2007, and c) will remain wildly profitable, and that profit share will remain more important to Apple than raw marketshare.

TiPb has discussed this before, of course. Back in August we heard that while the iPhone currently only has 8% of the market, it gets 32% of the revenue. Further back in January, we heard Apple was making double the profits of Nokia.

So, okay, if the Mayans are wrong and we’re all still here in 2012, maybe Apple will only be making 30% margin on a 13.7% share. But that might still be killer compared to very little on a 39% share.

Just compare Apple’s current financial results to the rest of the industry for an indication of how that works…

Stalwart Apple analyst Gene Munster is back, this time predicting the iPhone will hit multiple US carriers within an year — specifically Verizon — as well as expanded video offerings from iTunes — including a subscription service akin to satellite or cable, and an updated Apple TV to go with it.

Oh, and flying unicorns.

We joke. Slightly. Of course we want all these things too — and more — but we have a feeling that that’s all there is to some of these analyst reports — a bit of logical deduction and some surveys combined with what any of us would want:

“For various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model,” Munster said. “In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40 percent range vs. about 15 percent in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens). We believe Apple is seeing the increased unit sell-through more than offset the slightly (~10 percent) deteriorated economics per unit involved in non-exclusive agreements.”

So, expect it only when you see it.

[via AppleInsider]

Barrons (via MacRumors) claims an unnamed analyst has seen the near-legendary Apple iTablet and thinks:

The machine impresses with its display of hi-def video content, says the veteran analyst, who asked not to be identified. “It’s better than the average movie experience, when you hold this thing in your hands.”

And what’s more, competitors know that we know that they know that it’s coming soon:

“It’s close enough now to a final design that in Asia, there’s no other product in the waiting room or in the bullpen,” said the analyst. “There are dozens of ODMs [original device makers] making products for Lenovo and other PC makers that are all waiting to see what the Apple product is.”

So does this mean just as the iCloned iPhones are waning, the iReplicated iTablets are just waiting to launch? We’ll know come September. Or October. Or… January to March 2010!

(And yes, we still have polls open on both when it will ship, and what OS is will run, and whether or not it will succeed – get voting!)

That’s what some are taking away from the analyst briefings we linked to last week. Apple would have only one hardware platform, but different versions of the software for different SKUs of the iPhone.

Sigh. It’s hard enough to convince people that software isn’t just math, and math isn’t free, without dodgy OS stripping schemes artificially creating crippled, low-end versions. Apple thus far has known this — Mac OS X comes in only two versions, client and server. Likewise, they tend to have their free/cheap regular software like iPhoto, and pro apps like Aperture.

Could we see a “pro” version of the iPhone OS? Perhaps, but while the guts of the device would likely stay the same for compatibility and component cost reasons, it’s hard to see no hardware differentiation like more storage, better camera, tweaked casing. After all, that’s what Apple’s historically done with MacBooks and MacBook Pros.

If Apple did go with pure software differentiation, might also make for yet another interesting chapter in the Jailbreak cat-and-mouse game…

Apple believing their software differentiates the iPhone from OTHER smartphones is something they’ve made a point of making a point about since launch (and likely what they meant again this time). But differentiating within the iPhone platform? Well, we just hope they’re leaning towards iPhone Home Basic, Home Premium, Professional, and Ultimate. Because, you know, people just loved that about Windows Vista.

Business Insider is quoting Piper analyst Gene Munster as saying:

No New iPhones [at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference]. As indicated in today’s press release, we believe Apple will focus on the new version of Mac OS X, Snow Leopard at WWDC. While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones. We continue to expect multiple models, possibly a high-end iPhone with improved specs from the current version and a low-end version with lower capacity and fewer features along with a reduced pricing plan. Such a model could also be used in Apple’s launch of the iPhone into China as soon as the end of summer ’09.

Analysts are about as accurate as weathermen when it comes to predictions one month out, so take this with the usual Mac Pro sized grain of salt. Apple has used the last two WWDC events to showcase the iPhone, and introduced the iPhone 3G and MobileMe at WWDC 2008. If they stick to pattern, we should see an update on iPhone 3.0, the next generation iPhone, and perhaps a MobileMe refresh at WWDC 2009.

However, WWDC being an developer-focused event, it’s not impossible Apple will focus on their Mac OS 10.6 Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0 exclusively, leaving the hardware for a sexier consumer event later in the month.

As to a family of iPhones, we still don’t see Apple breaking the software platform, which means a low end iPhone could only be a low-storage iPhone 3G (8GB?) at $99?, with the next generation unit (at 16GB and 32GB, along with other new features) taking the established $199 and $299 positions.

Apple Insider, covering Piper Jaffray’s favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster, passes along:

Sales of 22 iPhones per stores is down from 28 iPhones per store during November, which suggests a 21 percent decline in sales sequentially compared to the Street’s view of a 24 percent drop. However, Munster is betting that expanded international availability will help offset some of these domestic declines and is therefore modeling iPhone sales for the March quarter to be relatively flat at 4.4 million units.

Of course, rampant speculation of a next generation iPhone announcement in June wouldn’t have anything to do with it… Like last year…

This is not a drill! We finally have someone, likely with no actual knowledge of the engineering or design of the next gen iPhone, going on record as saying:

his sources indicate Apple is readying a new iPhone that will ship in June with an upgraded camera that could deliver big improvements to the iPhone experiences, including both still and video capabilities “with possibly another camera on the front for video chat.”

iChat on the iPhone has been a perennial favorite among rumormeisters before every new launch, real and imagined, just like iPhone nano speculation. Speaking of which…

Apple Insider‘s coverage of Barclay’s Capital analyst Ben Reitzes’ predictions doesn’t stop there, of course, as we also get the prerequisite low end iPhone nano-ized rumors, the high end video iPhone Pro rumors.

Some of these are logical inferences, some are wishful thinking. We’re thinking — why let analysts have all the fun? What are you wishing for? Do we want Mobile iChat video? Could AT&T even support it in iPhone numbers? And if Apple isn’t going to fracture the platform with different screen sizes, are features a realistic way to differentiate their offerings?

Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)

Mike Abramsky, seasoned veteran of of RBC weighs in on an iPhone 3G “Pro” with the following specs, and the Magic 8-Ball chimes in with its pedictions in italics:

• iPhone 3G “Pro” nickname. As I see it, yes
• Retail price to stay the same $199/$299. My reply is no
• Wireless UMTS/HSUPA, Wifi, Bluetooth. My reply is no
  (Note: our understanding is that HSUPA is to uplink what HSPDA is to downlink, and someone’s mixing up their UMTS technologies there and really means a 3.5G system)
• 3.2MP camera with flash and video recording. Don’t count on it.
• 16GB/32GB storage. Most likely
• 0.1″ thinner. Yes
• AT&T to get it before the rest of the world. Most likely.
• Growth will not accelerate. Don’t count on it.

Okay, so both of their predictions seem a little hinkey to us, but what do we know? Bring on WWDC 2009, and until then, thanks everyone for playing Analyst vs. Magic 8-Ball and be sure to leave your predictions, and your thoughts on their predictions, in the comments!

[Via Apple Insider. Thanks to Jimmie for the tip!]

Before WWDC in June of 2008, when Apple announced the iPhone 3G, supplies of the original iPhone (now called 2G) began to dry up. Apple killed the iPhone 2G rather than allow two versions of the device to be on the market at the same time.

So why is every internet rumor and it’s quotable analyst predicting Apple will once again introduce a low-end $99 iPhone this spring/year/at Walmart? Why do they think Apple will bring back the iPhone 2G? (which is essential what a cheap, 4GB, EDGE, non-GPS iPhone would be). Sure, the still-ongoing economic problems are a concern to every consumer electronics maker. Granted, non-subsidized markets like India have been difficult for the premium iPhone to penetrate. Okay, Steve Jobs said they wouldn’t leave an umbrella beneath the iPhone for competition to try to exploit. FINE!

But here’s the thing: Since when has Apple done “cheap” anything? Aren’t these the same analysts that have been “predicting” an iPhone nano? An Apple Netbook? A bargain basement MacX mini-tower?

There are some markets Apple chooses not to participate in. And Apple doesn’t know how to make cheap products that aren’t crap.

Sure, maybe they’ll re-introduce the iPhone 2G. Maybe they’ll make a Netbook. Maybe Steve JOBS will appear on Dancing with Stars. Maybe I’ll look really stupid when all of the above happens this year. Maybe not.

My guess? If Apple introduces new hardware like they’re expected to this summer, maybe this time they’ll let the iPhone 3G hand around as an 8GB lower-end model. We’ll see if supplies start drying up around the May/June time frame.

Meanwhile, instead of breaking out my magic 8-ball again, I’m going to ask YOUR opinions. What do you think? Will Apple bring back the iPhone 2G? Will they go cheap?

(Thanks to Mike for sending in yet another analyst prediction, prompting this question).

Rumors are flying today that Apple may have already hit the suddenly-not-so-outrageous-sounding 10 Million iPhones Sold goal set by Steve Jobs for 2008. Reader Reptile pointed us to Seeking Alpha’s IMEI tracking coverage:

The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data. [...] Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.

Magic 8-Ball? Most likely

Apple’s quarterly conference call, scheduled for Oct. 21, should put some official numbers to the iPhone tally, but we think it’s safe to say they’re doing pretty fine. NPD, after all, has just released their numbers which show, according to Apple Insider, that the iPhone is now the #2 selling handset in the US (trailing only the cockroach-like ubiquity of the RAZRv3). CIO.com is going so far as to say the iPhone is the #1 selling smartphone in the US!

Who’s this hurting? The 30% who dumped their original carriers to get an iPhone AT&T:

The bulk of new iPhone owners who switched — 47% — left Verizon Wireless, while another 24% dumped T-Mobile and 19% switched from Sprint.

Ouch! Analysts are touting the T-Mobile Android/Google G1 and Verizon Blackberry Storm as possible blood-clotters for the other networks. However, while iPhone 2.x is already on the market (and Macworld 2009′s potential further revelations just around the corner), the G1 and Storm are racing to catch up with what are likely to be very public beta-devices of their own. And they’re light-years further along than the caught-flat-footed Windows Mobile 7 and Palm OS 2 Nova…

What do you think? Did Apple hit on a winning formula this year? Or was it all advertising sizzle and no steak? Can the other carriers/manufacturers come back? Or could it be that while everyone else was working on increasingly complex little smartphones with poor UI running on hobbled, outdated OS’s, Apple snuck in a real mobile computing platform tucked away behind iPod-like ease of use?

Good news? Looks like there really is a new “Home” option for iPhone activation in the US. Bad news? Looks like it has nothing to do with the iPhone being sold unlocked. Apple Insider, who broke the rumor, updates as follows:

In order to service these customers, a special home pre-qualification web site has been set up so that users can find if they are qualified by AT&T for a phone unit subsidy. Users can set up their account at home so that everything is ready to go when they make their iPhone 3G purchase at a retail store. The new “Home” option that retail employees are seeing on their EasyPay terminals is designed to allow them to use this home pre-qualification step to accelerate the transaction of a new iPhone 3G. That also indicates there is no impending potential for unlocked iPhone 3G sales in the US, although this is expected at some point.

Apple Insider is also sticking to the 32GB SKU, but maybe only after the holidays (though presumably that means short term, not, you know, any point after the holidays and into future months/years…)

Magic 8-Ball?

• Unlocked iPhones in the US? Very Doubtful
• 32GB iPhone in the *near* future? It is certain

Interesting! Can’t wait to see how this one pans out!

Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)

This edition checks back post-Let’s Rock to see was right, and what’s still left!

• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event disappoint? Yes TIE!
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple release new MacBooks (Pro/Air)? Very doubtful TIE!
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil a new Apple TV DVR? Ask again later WASH!
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil an iTablet/MacBook Touch? Very Doubtful 8-BALL WINS!
• iLounge: Is the thicker, more tapered iPod Touch for realz? Yes TIE!
• Ars Technica: Will iPhone 2.1 contain “secret” features? Don’t count on it 8-BALL WINS!
• MacRumors/Kevin Rose: Is Magnetosphere the new, trippy iTunes Visualizer? It is certain TIE!
• Microsoft/Seinfeld: Will the new TV commercial help Vista? Very Doubtful 8-BALL WINS! (yeah, it’s like that!)
• Kevin Rose: Apple Event on September 9th? “Very doubtful” KEVIN WINS!
• Kevin Rose: Firmware 2.1 debuting on sleeker iPod Touch? “Most likely” TIE!
• Kevin Rose: iTunes 8 with music recommendations? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) Most likely TIE!
• Kevin Rose: New, candy-bar Nano with rounded widescreen? “It is certain” TIE!
• Kevin Rose: Massive iPod price drops across the line? “Don’t count on it” TIE!-ish (price cuts, but nothing great)
• Kevin Rose: Mac OS X with Blu-Ray? “Ask again later” (asked again…) “Ask again later”
• iDealsChina: GPS for the iPod Touch? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) “Reply hazy” WASH!

Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)

This edition rounds up some of the mountain of rumors piling up in advance of Tuesday’s “Let’s Rock” event. Let’s get it on!

• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event disappoint? Yes
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple release new MacBooks (Pro/Air)? Very doubtful
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil a new Apple TV DVR? Ask again later
• Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil an iTablet/MacBook Touch? Very Doubtful
• iLounge: Is the thicker, more tapered iPod Touch for realz? Yes
• Ars Technica: Will iPhone 2.1 contain “secret” features? Don’t count on it
• MacRumors/Kevin Rose: Is Magnetosphere the new, trippy iTunes Visualizer? It is certain
• Microsoft/Seinfeld: Will the new TV commercial help Vista? Very Doubtful

And for those still keeping score on the last round, the current standings are after the jump!

• Kevin Rose: Apple Event on September 9th? “Very doubtful” KEVIN WINS!
• Kevin Rose: Firmware 2.1 debuting on sleeker iPod Touch? “Most likely”
• Kevin Rose: iTunes 8 with music recommendations? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) Most likely
• Kevin Rose: New, candy-bar Nano with rounded widescreen? “It is certain”
• Kevin Rose: Massive iPod price drops across the line? “Don’t count on it”
• Kevin Rose: Mac OS X with Blu-Ray? “Ask again later” (asked again…) “Ask again later”
• iDealsChina: GPS for the iPod Touch? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) “Reply hazy”

Who’s right? What’s left?

We’ll come back on Wednesday and see how the analysts fared, and if the 8-ball held it’s own!

Welcome to the first in a new series from TiPb, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)

This edition kicks off with Gene Munster, who boldly states Apple will sell 13 million iPhone 3Gs this year, and 45 million next.

Magic 8-ball? “Most likely”

Next up we have Diggster Kevin Rose, with a multitude of maybes:

• Apple Event on September 9th? “Very doubtful”
• Firmware 2.1 debuting on sleeker iPod Touch? “Most likely”
• iTunes 8 with music recommendations? “Cannot predict now”
• New, candy-bar Nano with rounded widescreen? “It is certain”
• Massive iPod price drops across the line? “Don’t count on it”
• Mac OS X with Blu-Ray? “Ask again later”

Lastly, iDealsChina is rumormongering GPS for the iPod Touch? “Cannot predict now”

Who’s right? What’s left?

When a story breaks — if it breaks — we’ll come back and compare results. And we’re betting on a pretty even race, you?

(Special thanks to K. Michaels for the inspiration).