What you need to know
- Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new investor note.
- Kuo details his expectations for the iPhone SE, iPhone SE Plus, and iPhone 12.
- Both the iPhone 12 and iPhone SE Plus may experience delays.
Ming-Chi Kuo, supply chain analyst at TF International Securities, has released a new investor note detailing his predictions for the iPhone 12, iPhone SE Plus, as well as his analysis of preorders for the iPhone SE.
Reported by 9to5Mac, Kuo says that while "the market didn't have a high expectation" for the iPhone SE, preorders for the new low-cost iPhone have exceeded expectations.
This has led the analyst to predict sales of 12-14 million units of the new iPhone SE in Q2 of 2020, followed by at least 10 million shipments in Q3. Kuo says that this performance is an indication that consumers are choosing to purchase more cost-effective devices during the pandemic, and that this could point to lower sales of the iPhone 12.
Speaking of the iPhone 12, Kuo says that Apple has moved the qualification process for the iPhone 12 to more of a remote setting and that the changes have led to a one-month delay in the work.
"Kuo explains that Apple started the online qualification process for this year's iPhone 12 models remotely and has delegated more tasks 'to local employees.' These changes have led to a one-month delay in engineering verification testing for the new iPhone 12 models."
Apple is expected to release four new models of the iPhone 12, and Kuo expects the lineup to roll out over the course of a couple months. While the rumored 6.1-inch and 5.4-inch models are expected to reach mass production in September, the 6.7-inch model may be delayed by at least a month.
Kuo also states that the device is experiencing further delays because of the 5G technology Apple is trying to build into the phone. An iPhone with mmWave is expected, and changes to the antenna design in April are creating additional complications in getting the device out in time.
"The mmWave iPhone will be pushed back because the design of the antenna in package (AiP) changes in early April. Additionally, the test lab is closed and can't offer qualification process services. If the pandemic can't be controlled well until July, then we think that the shipment allocation of mmWave iPhones will decrease to 5–10% from 15–20%."
Ming-Chi Kuo also states that the rumored iPhone SE Plus may be delayed until at least the second half of 2021.