Asymco has compiled the profits, revenues, and unit shipments among all of the major manufacturers, and as you can see in this graph, Apple is still kicking everyone’s behind when it comes to smartphone profit share. Though the revenue share gap with Samsung is a bit smaller than the one for profits, Apple is still decidedly in the lead. After all is said and done, Apple is claiming 75% of the profit share, 40% of the revenue share, and 9% of the unit share of the mobile market (though that last number might be closer to 8%).

After Apple’s monstrously successful first quarter it’s no surprise that Apple is profitable. Heck, it’s no surprise they’re the undisputed God-King of the mobile industry, and they probably have a giant pool of money where employees can get all Scrooge McDuck on lunch breaks. However, the fact that Apple is pulling in so much money out of the entire industry really illustrates just how successful the iPhone has become. Of course, if you ask any Android fan, financial success doesn’t necessarily equate to product quality (and I’m inclined to agree with them), but you can’t argue with the results. There’s another great graph here that shows just how much the iPhone’s market share has increased on multiple fronts since launch in 2007.

With this much of a lead, how much does Apple really have to worry about? Will it suffer death by a thousand cuts from a bajillionty Android devices? Or will Windows Phone eventually come into its own and give iPhone a run for its money? Looking at this graphs, it’s hard to imagine either of these things happening. The best the competition can reasonably hope for now is to get comfortable in second place. Let’s put it this way — what would the competition have to do to win you over?

Source: Asymco

Strategy Analytics has crunched most of the fourth quarter results announced this week (including Apple’s), and figures the iPhone maker is now the top smartphone manufacturer, but only by a sliver. In Q4 2011, Apple claimed 23.9% of global smartphone market share, and Samsung trailed only slightly, with 23.5%. That’s just counting Q4, too; for the whole year, Samsung beat out Apple by a single percentage point.

Beyond smartphones, in the world of mobiles at large, Apple was relatively far behind. iPhones constituted 8.3% of the world’s handsets, while Nokia still clung the top spot with 25.5%, followed by Samsung with 21.3% global market share. Although that shows the iPhone still has a long ways to go, it did boast the best growth out of the three; during the same quarter last year, Apple only constituted 4.0% of the global market.

The folks at Strategy Analytics stepped in for a few comments. Associate Director Alex Spektor said “Apple’s growth was fueled by intense demand for its refreshed iPhone 4S, as well as the availability of three generations of iPhones at a variety of price points at operators like AT&T in the United States,” but there’s a lot of promise internationally, too. Tom Kang, another director, said ”China is becoming a key market for Apple this year, and we expect Apple’s share to grow rapidly in 2012, despite countless copycat rivals.” Nokia’s having a rough time holding onto their top spot, despite generally positive reviews of their first Windows Phones. According to Executive Director Neil Mawston,  “Nokia’s global handset shipments declined 8 percent annually to 113.5 million units in Q4 2011. Volumes were buoyed by the sales of Nokia’s low-end dual-SIM models in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, but were a little soft overall, as initial shipments of Microsoft Lumia phones could not offset declining Symbian sales.”

It’s rarely a surprise to see Apple doing well in terms of sales, but they’ll have to keep working hard in order to stay ahead of Samsung. We’re seeing lots of different Android phones coming out of Samsung to address different price points, and though Spektor’s right that there are older iPhones still on the market, they lack the forward-compatibility of many Android handsets.

It’s worth noting that according to Strategy Analytics, the overall smartphone market grew 63.1% in 2011, versus 71.4% growth in 2010. Do you guys think smartphone momentum is starting to plateau, or is this just a slight bump in the road?

Source: Strategy Analytics via Apple Insider

As you might expect, anyone in the market for an iPhone is leaning towards the latest and greatest. A recent survey conducted by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners shows that 89% of U.S. consumers who bought an iPhone between October 14 (the day the iPhone 4S launched) and December went with the 4S, while 7% picked up an iPhone 4, and 4% bought a 3GS. Of the iPhone 4S buyers, 21% bought the 64 GB model, 34% went with 32 GB, and 45% bought the 16 GB version. The CIRP co-founder, Mike Levin, provided some additional context to the study.

“An amazing 19 percent of all iPhone buyers upgraded from the iPhone 4, a phone barely a year old at the time of the launch. Forty-two percent of iPhone buyers broke existing carrier contracts to get the new iPhone 4S. And 19 percent of these iPhone 4S buyers sold their old iPhone in the secondary market. Early upgrades, broken contracts, and selling used phones — all allow buyers to purchase the new iPhone 4S, when conventional wisdom suggests that these users would follow the two-year contract cycle, or at least purchase the cheaper models.”

Quick show of hands – how many of you upgraded from the iPhone 4 to the 4S? Know any friends who did? Any regrets? Other surveys show iPhone 4S satisfaction is through the roof, so I doubt it.

Source: AllThingsD

iOS devices combined — including iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch — may have outsold Android devices combined — including Android phones and tablets — by a narrow margin last quarter. During the Q1 2012 Apple conference call today, Tim Cook pegged the iOS device number at 62 million. Android numbers are harder to come by, but last month Andy Rubin said 700,000 were now being activated a day. Given the prior two months were likely less, the following month perhaps more, it probably works out to 60 or 61 million.

During the same call, Tim Cook also revealed that the Amazon Kindle Fire had no affect on iPad sales, far he can tell. Sprint ultimately paid dearly to get the iPhone on their network in order to remain competitive. Verizon announced their results today, and revealed that slightly more than half of their smartphone sales were iPhones.

Apple has long dominated their competitors in terms of smartphone profit share but recently Android was assumed to have a big lead in market share. I’ve long discounted that, saying it’s irrelevant.

And nothing that was announced today changes that.

Apple released the iPhone 4S last quarter, almost 3 months later than many people anticipated. There was massive pent up demand for the iPhone 4S and it sold gangbusters. But Apple probably isn’t releasing another new iPhone this quarter. Or next. Or the one after that. But there will be new Android phones. Maybe not next quarter, but certainly the one after, running Android 4.0 and likely once again upping the spec fight.

Carriers, who can control Android in ways Apple will never allow them to control iPhones, will push these new devices heavily — like they did the original Droid and a plethora of devices since — and many buyers, geek tweakers and feature-phone replacers alike, will buy them.

The market share trends and figures will change and likely change again.

But they’ll constantly be irrelevant. Because they ultimately don’t matter.

Earlier this month I walked into an Apple Store with scratches on my iPhone 4S screen and walked out 30 min. later with a new iPhone 4S and a stern lecture about taking better care of my gear. And without paying a dime.

Last week Apple released iBooks 2, iBooks Author, and iTunes U, taking the first steps towards mainstreaming digital education.

Just this week, as is almost always the case, I downloaded apps with UI so well designed, UX so thoughtful, they made me smile and delight in using my iPhone and iPad again.

The best devices, the best software, the best service. That’s relevant. As a consumer, that’s what matters. Not Apple’s numbers. Not Google’s numbers. That’s what all companies should be fiercely fighting over. Delighting us. That’s the metric they should all be measured by.

That should be the competition.

According to Nielsen, the amount of all smartphones running iOS — namely the iPhone — rose from 30% to 37% over the last 3 months, compared to the share of all smartphones running Android OS — namely 8 googlezillion at last official count — rose from 46.3% to 51.7%. The growth came largely at the expense of BlackBerry, which shrank from 14.9% to 6% over the same period.

Among recent smartphone purchasers, Apple jumped from 25.1% last quarter to 44.5% while Android slowed from 61.6% to 46.9% and BlackBerry slid from 7.7% to 4.5%.

Given the tremendous success of the iPhone 4S last quarter, which ended prior to the launch of the next-generation Android 4.0 devices, and saw RIM still stuck in the great desert of the QNX/BB10 platform transition, the numbers aren’t surprising. Once we get deeper into Apple’s typical year-long product cycle, and new Android 4.0 devices start hitting the market in earnest, the figure will almost certainly change again.

However, that Apple continues to have the most popular single phones on the market, and a phenomenally disproportionate profit share, should perhaps be an indicator that better, more nuanced, and more contextual analysis are needed from metrics companies.

Source: Nielsen via Android Central

A survey issued Monday by IDG Connect shows that 91% of business and IT professionals use their iPad more for business communication than personal needs. They also found that over 25% of employers deployed iPads to their employees.

Other numbers included in the survey -

• 97% of professionals use the iPad for reading
• 70% + now buy fewer physical books and newspapers
• 72% of iPad owners carry their laptop less
• 66% say the iPad has partially or completely replaced their laptop

iPads are not only a cheaper option than laptop computers for employers but they’re also much more portable. If an iPad suits an employee’s business needs it may be a better option financially than a laptop. 83% of the employers surveyed also said they would not consider another kind of tablet after using the iPad.

Source: The Loop

HP CEO Meg Whitman admitted in a recent interview that if you count tablets, Apple may very well bust past them in PC sales after holiday sales are tallied up. A bunch of analyst estimates suggest Apple could break 20 million combined iPad and Mac unit sales over the holidays. That would put it over the   14.7 million that HP had churned out last quarter, and well ahead of other manufacturers like Acer, Dell, and Lenovo. Of course, if you don’t count the iPad, and only Mac sales, Apple falls well behind the whole lot.  Over the holidays, it’s estimated Apple cleared little over 5 million Mac units.

I’m still a little dubious about counting the current breed of tablets as full-blown PCs, despite being great computing devices. There’s no lack of Macbook Air owners that aren’t inclined to also carry around an iPad, and Windows 8 is showing that other big-boy laptops will soon be able to slim down to the size of tablets borne of smartphone operating systems.

These are interesting estimates to consider, but we won’t know for sure how well Apple’s Mac and iPad sales did until they announce their quarterly results on January 24. What do you guys think – is it fair to lump in the iPad with Mac sales when talking about the PC market?

Source: TechCrunch via Asymco

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore has taken a red pen to IDC’s graph of the personal computer market and corrected it to include Apple’s iPad. The difference, of course, is striking.

2011 was supposed to be the year of the Android tablet. One year later, Android tablets have failed to meet expectations and for the most part have been unsuccessful. This year, tablets had a much smaller presence as vendors appear to be placing greater emphasis on Windows 8. We expect Windows 8 ARM tablets to ramps slowly as most Apps require rewriting for ARM-based tablet hardware. We remain skeptical that Win 8 tablets will gain much traction this year (App rewrites take time / developer ecosystem support). As a result, we expect the move away from Android tablet investment and a slow ramp of Win 8 tablets to create a favorable competitive backdrop for Apple’s forthcoming iPad 3.

IDC and other metrics companies have struggled comically with their reporting since the introduction of the iPad, classifying it as a “media tablet” and inventing a “non-iPad tablet” space (where, apparently, no one can hear rival executives scream). When Windows 8 tablets begin to ship over the course of the next year, they’ll either have to reassess how they handle the iPad… or come up with an even more distorted “non-iPad possibly ARM-based Windows tablet” market.

Source: Fortune

Just as with every past Apple keynote, Tim Cook began Tuesday’s Let’s talk iPhone event by discussing numbers for devices sold, apps downloaded, percent market share, etc. Let’s take a look at those numbers:

Stores

• 100,000 visitors stopped by on opening weekend of the Shanghai store. It took the LA store to reach that many visitors.
• 357 total stores in 11 countries

Mac

• Six million copies of Lion downloaded so far – 80% more than Snow Leopard
• In comparison with Windows 7 – it took 20 weeks to reach 10% of the Windows install base. It took Lion two weeks.
• The MacBook Pro and the iMac are the number one best selling notebook and desktop in the United States
• Mac platform has grown by 23% since last year (the PC has grown by 4%)
• Approaching 60 million Mac users worldwide
• 23% market share for Apple as of August

iPod

• iPod has 78% of portable music player market share
• Over 300 million iPods have been sold (It took Sony 30 years to sell 220,000 Walkman cassette players)
• 45 million iPods sold from July 2010 to June 2011
• 20 million songs on iTunes- twenty times what the service launched with
• 16 billion songs downloaded from iTunes

iPhone

• The iPhone 4 makes up half of the overall iPhone market
• 125 percent growth year-over-year for iPhone sales
• 70% customer satisfaction with iPhone (HTC is second with 49%)
• iPhone is 5% percent of the overall mobile phone market

iPad

• Every state in the US has an iPad deployment program
• 1,000 schools have a 1:1 program
• Over 80% of the hospitals in the US are testing or piloting iPad
• 92% of Fortune 500 companies are testing or deploying iPads
• #1 tablet in the world – 75% of all tablets sold are iPads

iOS

• More than 250 million devices sold
• #1 mobile operating system – 43% share compared to Android’s 33%

Apps

• More than 500,000 apps in the App Store
• 140,000 iPad specific apps
• 18 billion downloaded apps
• More than 1 billion apps downloaded per month
• Apple has paid out $3 billion to developers

This last statistic is the interesting one to me, because Apple never mentions how much their cut of the app sales is. Well, I did the math for you, and Apple has earned nearly $1.3 billion in app sales. Not too shabby.

That rocket ship-like Apple uptake in the chart above occurs when you count iPad along with notebooks as one, giant portable market. If you don’t count it, Apple falls behind the likes of Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP, and Samsung.

While no doubt debate will continue to rage over just how to meld the PC and post-PC categories, and the tablet iPad market, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore makes the following case:

Within the computing market, we see significant opportunity for Apple to take meaningful share in the second half as the Microsoft / PC ecosystem is relatively stagnant, lacking meaningful new offerings. On the other hand, Apple will be competing with an upgraded Mac OS, new MacBook Airs (and other forthcoming Macs) and a new iPad iOS. Within the Tablet market, the iPad remains the Gold Standard as competitors struggle for mindshare and traction (note HP’s price cuts on the TouchPad). Meanwhile, competing PC manufacturers have suggested Ultrabooks won’t ramp in material volumes until 2012 due to challenges driving price points meaningfully below Apple’s Air. As such, Apple appears particularly well positioned for more share gains heading into the back-to- school and holiday selling season.

[Fortune]

With the release of the iPhone on the Verizon network just a few months ago, analyst reports are saying it might just have slowed the previously runaway Android market growth. TechCrunch is even conjecturing the upcoming iPhone 5 could stop or even reverse it completely.

For much of last year iPhone was tied to one US carrier, AT&T. Now it’s on AT&T and Verizon, but it’s still essentially one device (though AT&T still has the bargain-priced iPhone 3GS), made by one manufacturer. Usually that one device is on a once-a-year cycle, but this year it might be closer to 15 months. Android on the other hand is on every network, and has hundreds of devices with new releases every few weeks. Given the greater carrier footprint and greater choice in models, all Android devices together should absolutely be outselling the 1 or 2 iPhones on 2 carriers in the US.

However, reports from NPD from April say that the iPhone market grew while Android’s declined. About a month later, Nielsen said Android was indeed leveling off. Just a few days ago Needham was reporting from the use of IDC data that Android’s share of the market hit its peak in March and is now declining, where Apple’s share is once again on the rise. This is the first quarterly decrease that Android has ever seen. Yesterday, BTIG released a report saying iPhone is outselling Android in the majority of US AT&T and Verizon stores. And Verizon reported it had sold 2.2 million iPhones on its network in just two months.

That’s probably not a coincidence. The Verizon iPhone could just be the reason the Android market is leveling off and, in some reports, declining. With iPhone 5 on the way, and the usually media and hype cycles that surround it, it’s not unreasonable to think Apple can keep that momentum going. Add rumors of T-Mobile, perhaps even Sprint support in the future, and it gets very interesting very fast.

What do you think, will Android kick it back into gear and keep growing, or does Apple have a real chance to take the lead here?

[ NDP data, Nielsen data, TechCrunch]

While Apple’s iPhone still only accounts for about 4% of global phone market share they now rake in roughly 50% the profit share. Asymco has charts up for the top 8 mobile phone vendors broken down by market, sales and profit share and while Google’s free Android OS has just crushed Nokia’s Symbian in overall numbers I’d much rather have Apple’s bank account. You?

[Asymco, Android Central]

According to the latest data from The Nielsen Company, Apple’s iOS for iPhone and RIM’s BBOS for BlackBerry are neck-and-neck for total U.S. smartphone operating system market share sitting at 27 percent each. Android OS, which powered a bunch of phones from Motorola, HTC, Samsung, and others, is hot on their heels now sitting at 22 percent of total U.S. Market share.

Among users planning to get a new smartphone, current smartphone owners showed a preference for the Apple iPhone (35 percent), while 28 percent of both smartphone and featurephone planned smartphone upgraders indicated they wanted a device with an Android operating system as their next mobile phone.

Featurephone owners planning to get a smartphone are less likely to have made up their mind about the OS they will choose: 25 percent were “not sure” what their next desired OS might be compared to 13 percent of smartphone owners. Those over 55 were markedly less certain than younger mobile users, with 27.8 saying they weren’t sure what kind of device they wanted next, compared to 12.2 percent of those 18 to 24.

Apple’s iPhone and devices with the Android operating system were the “most desired” among likely smartphone upgraders, with Apple showing a slight lead among those age 55+ , 18 to 24, and 25 to 34.

Women planning to get a smartphone are more likely to want an iPhone as their next device, with slightly more males preferring Android.

We know if you’re reading TiPb you probably like the iPhone but what’s your opinion on the survey, do the results match what you’re seeing with your friends and colleagues?

[ Nielsen via Engadget ]

Millenial Media’s October Mobile Mix is out and for the first time they’ve expanded their report from strictly smartphones like iPhone to all connected devices, including iPod touch and iPad. With that in mind, Apple’s iPhone remains the top mobile device at 15.96%, and the new mix sees Apple at the top mobile device manufacturer list with 24.96%. Some additional highlights:

• Apple, the leading device manufacturer on their network for the last thirteen months and accounted for a 25% share of impressions on their network in October.
• iPad requests increased 112% month-over-month
• Connected Devices, Apple iPod touch, Apple iPad and the Sony PSP made up 3 of the Top 30 Mobile Devices on our network.
• Smartphone impression share increased 7% month-over-month and represented 61% of the Smartphone, Feature Phone & Connected Device Impression share in October.
• Non-U.S. impressions on the Millennial Media network have grown 20% faster than U.S. impressions since January.
• Games, Social Networking and Mail & Messaging were the Top Three Global Mobile Application Categories in October.
• This month, for the first time, Android tied with iOS as the largest Smartphone OS on our network, with an 8% increase month-over-month and 37% impression share on our network.

The morbidly curious part of us is wondering what those numbers may look like one day in a post Verizon iPhone world…

[Millenial Media]

As we wait on Apple’s Q4 earnings report later today, it’s interesting to look at the graphic above and see just what a profound effect iPad sales have had, and are likely increasingly to have, on the US PC market. Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore:

• The U.S. PC market grew an anemic 4% year-over-year in calendar Q3 without the iPad, according to IDC. Include the iPad, as Whitmore feels one ought to, and that growth jumps to a robust 24%.
• Exclude the iPad, and Apple’s (AAPL) PC sales grew 24% year-over-year. Include them, and Apple’s unit sales soared roughly 250%. By comparison, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) grew 3% year-over-year and Dell (DELL) units fell 5%.
• When the iPad is part of the mix, Apple’s share of the U.S. PC market is about 25%. That makes it the market leader, having gained a remarkable 18 points in the space of two quarters.

Add to that: Apple makes good margins on a $500 iPad, a device with great build quality, materials, and consumer appeal. Other manufacturers typically make razor thin margins on $500 netbooks/laptops, which are also typically poor devices with lousy build quality, cheap materials, and consumer appeal attached only to the price tag.

[Fortune]

Interesting visualization of smartphone market-share vs profit-share and how it’s changed from 2007 to 2010. Also interesting how survey results use terms like Android vs. iPhone while the actual business metrics always seem to break down by manufacturer (notice it’s Apple, not iPhone or iOS above, and no Android is mentioned, though Moto, Sammy, et al are front and center).

What I’m curious about is whether consumers think they’re buying an iPhone or iPhone, an Android phone or a Motorola or HTC phone, or an AT&T or Verizon phone? For Apple it doesn’t matter much in the US (or internationally with unlocked models now available pretty much everywhere), but for Google and Microsoft (when Windows Phone 7 launches), what phone do mainstream consumers think they have? Do they know a Droid Eris is an HTC Hero and that’s why they bought it or do they just know it’s on Verizon and does apps?

For developers, manufacturer certainly isn’t anywhere nearly as important as platform (iOS vs. Android) because, with a few exceptions to insure compatibility between devices, they’re targeting OS not hardware. In that case, however, iPhone isn’t a device unto itself because iOS apps also work on the extremely popular iPod touch and iPad, meaning iOS smartphone market share (i.e. iPhone) isn’t the whole story.

That I’ve spent this whole post focusing on Google and their partners and Apple is also strangely consistent with the directions of them arrows on that chart. With Windows Phone 7 launching this month, new webOS 2.0 hardware next year, and BlackBerry on a hot new QNX OS sometime in the future could make it change again by 2012, which is great for consumers.

(And Microsoft, it’s still not to late to launch as Xphone with a Halo Special Edition right on the shelf at AT&T across from iPhone. Really.)

See, we shouldn’t be “fans” of a manufacturer or platform — though we can certainly find one or the other better suited to our current needs — and fight over them. Manufacturers and platform makers should be “fans” of users and fight over us by making the best, least crippled, most advanced, powerful, and delightful products they can, with great services and killer customer support.

Because momentum — and money — will go with those arrows.

[asymco, thanks everyone who sent this in!]

With the Launch of iAd by Apple many companies are choosing to advertise with them instead of Google or Microsoft. Businessweek.com reported that Apple may control as much as 21% of the market by the end of the year. Google will drop to 21% from last year’s holding of 27% and Microsoft, who was only just getting into ads, will drop to just 7% from last year’s 10%.

Not bad for Apple, who wasn’t even in the mobile advertising market until they bought Quattro Wireless and announced iAd back at WWDC 2010.

Unilever, whose first iAd made its debut in July, is “extremely happy” with the results of its ad campaigns, Rob Master, the company’s North American media director, says in an interview. More than 20 percent of people who click on Unilever iAds—which feature video and an interactive game—check out the ad a second time, he says.

Natalie Kerris, a spokesperson at Apple, reports that since June the number of brands that use Apple’s iAd has doubled. This trend isn’t just affecting Google and Microsoft either as both Nokia and Yahoo ad services are suffering as well.

Have you seen iAds in your apps? Are you any more likely to check out the products showcased in an iAd compared to a Google AdMob ad, or an ad from another network? Is Apple really offering a better experience for both advertisers and end users? Let us know your thoughts.

This is an official entry by Slyfi in TiPb’s next top blogger contest. Think you have what it takes to join Team TiPb? Bring it!

[Business Week via Fortune]

iPhone has tiny market share, monumental profit share according to Canaccord Genuity and IDC, and pretty much everyone else who’s ever mentioned it. TiPb’s been pointing this out for a long time of course, but boy does the above graphic make it visually apparent just what the difference is.

Why do we, as users, care if Apple’s making more money than everyone else (most of them combined)? Because it means Apple can keep making the iPhone they want to make, not the iPhone carriers dictate they make. Apple doesn’t have to add big logos on the front of their phones, add carrier bloatware or let carriers make exclusive deals to lock out apps, lock out search engines, or replace Apple’s own app store with a carrier store that won’t let you take your apps with you to other devices and providers.

Sure, Apple will make mistakes and get things wrong, but ultimately Apple is a company that believes we, the end users, are their customers — not the carriers.

So, yes, Nokia has a bigger market share and Android likely will as well soon enough. Apple’s laughing all the way to the bank, though, and providing a phone that may not be as “open” as we like to us, but certainly isn’t as tragically “open” to the manufacturers and carriers as the competition.

We’ll see what, if anything, that means to a potential Verizon iPhone deal…

[Fortune]

Gartner says global Android market share will surpass iPhone market share by 2011:

Gartner expects manufacturers such as Samsung to launch many new budget Android devices in 2H10 that will drive Android into mass market segments. Other players, such as Sony Ericsson, LG and Motorola, will follow a similar strategy. This trend should help Android become the top OS in North America by the end of 2010.

Internationally Android would be second only to Nokia.

Totally unrelated link: iPhone is 3% of handset unit volume, 2x profit of RIM, Nokia, Sony combined. iPad next?

[Gartner via Android Central]

Net Applications is reporting that iOS has passed Linux to become the third most popular platform accessing the internet. With a 1.1% share, they’re still behind big brother Mac OS X’s 5% and way behind Windows all-encompassing 91.3% share. However, for a mobile OS, especially considering the next most popular mobile OS, Android, is at 0.2%, that’s a fairly huge accomplishment. According to Vince Vizzaccaro, VP of NetApps:

“Whatever the sales are, we’re seeing iOS totally dominate the market on the Web. iOS has nearly a 6:1 advantage over Android.”

Eh. Given the high adoption rate of greeks and mainstream now, Android will probably catch up quickly. Linux probably won’t. Mobile as a whole is on a tremendous growth curve.

[NetApps via 9to5mac]

Acer chairman JT Wang, thinks that the iPad will drop from its current near 100% market share to somewhere around 20% or 30%. Like Asus, Acer’s netbook business is feeling the pain of Apple’s entry into the “third device category” with iPad. Since Apple is pretty much alone in that space right now — despite a 10 year Tablet PC head start we should point out — any form of real competition will begin splitting the market.

The question is will Acer, Asus, and the like compete the same way they’ve chose to with netbooks — using ultra cheap, near zero-margin processors, operating systems, and commodity parts to grab tons of market share and leave the profit share for Apple, or will they try to go toe-to-toe with Cupertino on user experience and hardware?

Will the “pad” market end up being more like laptops, with netbooks on one end and MacBooks on the other, or more like smartphones where Apple, HTC, Motorola, and others all battle it out to be the best?

[UDN via Engadget]

With 3.3 million iPad sales last quarter, if that number is lumped in with MacBook and MacBook Pro laptop sales, Apple reportedly slingshots over Asus, Lenovo, Toshiba and Dell to claim the #3 spot in portable computer market share.

Which is okay for headlines and graphs, I guess. As longtime readers know, I’ve repeatedly said market share isn’t anywhere near as important for Apple as profit share. With just 3% of the smartphone market they still make twice the profit Sony, Nokia, and RIM make combined. With single digit PC share they still make umpteen billions on higher end, higher margin Macs.

Sure an iPad can’t do everything a Mac laptop or Windows or Linux laptop or netbook can do, but it can apparently do enough things well enough, and maybe a few things better enough, to be selling a million units a month with no sign of slowing down. It’s not cannibalizing Mac sales to do it either. If it’s cannibalizing netbooks and bargain laptops, already practically loss-leaders for Intel, Microsoft, and the manufacturers, while significantly boosting Apple’s bottom line, then that’s very interesting for the market.

Especially when Microsoft still seems intent on competing with tablets based on Intel chips running Windows 7 — sometime in 2012. My guess is HP/Palm and BlackBerry maker RIM are more likely to try and emulate Apple’s more mobile OS, higher margin strategy.

But back to the headline and graph: 1) should iPad be counted as portable computers alongside laptops and netbooks, and 2) what kind of market does that make where Apple is earning huge margins while everyone else is scraping by on razor-thin, race-to-the-bottom portable PCs?

[Fortune, graphs via Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore]

While iPhone accounts for only 3% of handset market share by unit volume, Finacial Times reveals some Goldman’s numbers that show it’s set to capture a stunning 2X the profit share of Nokia, RIM, and Sony — combined.

And Goldman only showed those numbers by way of saying how enthusiastic they are about iPad doing the same thing to the PC industry. That sounds crazy, but iPad almost equalled Mac sales numbers this quarter and while its margins are less than the Mac’s, they’re higher than the razor-thin netbook and bargain basement PC industry where much of the volume rests.

TiPb’s been saying for a while Apple only cared about market share as much as it meant increased profit share. Looks like that’s working out for them.

[Financial Times via Business Insider Daring Fireball]

According to NPD, more smartphones were sold in the US that run Android than smartphones than run iPhone OS in Q1 2010. BlackBerry remains in the number one spot. According to NPD. Apple isn’t a fan of the metrics being used:

“This is a very limited report on 150,000 US consumers responding to an online survey and does not account for the more than 85 million iPhone and iPod touch customers worldwide,” Apple spokesperson Natalie Harrison, told The Loop. “IDC figures show that iPhone has 16.1 percent of the smartphone market and growing, far outselling Android on a worldwide basis. We had a record quarter with iPhone sales growing by 131 percent and with our new iPhone OS 4.0 software coming this summer, we see no signs of the competition catching up anytime soon.”

Since Android can be found in a variety of form factors on all four US carriers, and since Verizon offers it as part of their BOGO (buy one, get one free) promotions, just like the BlackBerry, even if the NPD numbers hold up they’re not surprising.

That the iPhone’s market share is so high in the US, given they’re on one carrier with one form factor, is actually more surprising — only that it happens so often now we’ve stopped being surprised, especially after Apple’s last financial results statement.

And yes, we’re tired of beating that old horse as much as you’re tired of watching it get beaten, but Apple cares only about market share as much as it amplifies profit share. Google isn’t making direct money off of Android (though they do off monetizing services like search, which they also monetize on the iPhone) and on the low-margin, BOGO devices that give BlackBerry its lead, they’re not making Apple-sized margins either (they likely do better on Bold-class devices).

Needless to say, Apple’s not letting AT&T do BOGO for iPhone. For Apple, the iPhone is a premium product and they’d much rather maintain their huge lead in profit share than line discount bins for the sake of per-unit OS market share.

[Android Central, the Loop]

PreCentral.net points us to comScore‘s latest stats showing Apple’s iPhone market share is still on the way up, going from 24.1% to 25.3%, a 1.2% increase.

Google’s Android, with its Droid on Verizon splash jumped 2.7% (to reach 5.2). Everyone else was in the negative, with RIM down 1% (though still huge at 41.6%), Microsoft down 1% (to 18%), and Palm down 2.2% (to 2.7%).

It’s also important for TiPb to once again point out that Apple’s high margins means that market share likely translates into a higher profit share than most as well. That means, for example, when we see CrackBerry.com boasting about being #1 Q4 IDC results for best selling smartphones, the iPhone 3GS coming in at #2 and the iPhone 3G coming in at #4 (with the Droid at #3 and the Pearl rounding things out at #5), Apple’s bankers are likely much happier, and their R&D department working on iPhone gen 4 and gen 5, much better funded.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, market share and profit share aren’t the same thing, and just to prove that point, it looks like Apple’s iPhone has shot passed Nokia to become the most profitable handset on the market. Says Telephony Online:

The firm estimates that Apple’s iPhone operating profit came in at $1.6 billion in Q3, while Nokia recorded only $1.1 billion in operating profit. “With strong volumes, high wholesale prices and tight cost controls, the PC vendor has successfully broken into the mobile phone market in just two years,” said analyst Alex Spektor in the research note.

That’s based on 1.6 billion in Q3 iPhone profits for Apple vs. 1.1 billion for Nokia and their handsets.

Why does this matter to us? High profit margins for Apple means more cash they can re-invest into the iPhone and its technology, and like the MacBook and iMac line (and the boilerplate they keep feeding us on their conference calls) it means they can decide to amp up the innovation, even if costs them a little in the short term. No margin, no room for that kind of competition.

So, Apple, we hope you take a lot of that 1.6 billion, check out your competition, and invest heavily in wowing us again in 2010, b’okay?

[Strategy Analyst via Telephony Online via MacRumors]

Could Apple’s iPhone be destined for 3rd place in smartphone marketshare by 2012, trailing Nokia/Symbian’s 39% and Google Android‘s 14.5% with a paltry 13.7%? That’s what some analysts at Gartner are telling ComputerWorld, with Nokia already in the global lead, and Google’s wallet, cloud-services, rapid iteration of the OS, and variety of form-factors and UIs from multiple manufacturers. Rounding out the other players are Windows Mobile with 12.8%, RIM BlackBerry with 12.5%, various Linux mobiles with a collective 5.4%, and Palm webOS with 2.1%.

iPhone, projected at 71.5 million unites sold, doesn’t have Nokia’s existing footprint or Google’s services, but here’s the thing: a) it has Apple’s still-unmatched 360 degrees of ecosystem integration, b) will likely continue to improve at the same rate it has since the original iPhone 2G running 1.x with no apps or services in 2007, and c) will remain wildly profitable, and that profit share will remain more important to Apple than raw marketshare.

TiPb has discussed this before, of course. Back in August we heard that while the iPhone currently only has 8% of the market, it gets 32% of the revenue. Further back in January, we heard Apple was making double the profits of Nokia.

So, okay, if the Mayans are wrong and we’re all still here in 2012, maybe Apple will only be making 30% margin on a 13.7% share. But that might still be killer compared to very little on a 39% share.

Just compare Apple’s current financial results to the rest of the industry for an indication of how that works…

Yeah, so if the analysts are to be believed — and Hollywood is wrong about the world ending first – - Apple might just sell 82+ million iPhones in 2012 (not by 2012, but 82+ million that year alone!) accounting for 5.7% of the market.

RBC guestimates that Apple will dominate the media-centric category of smartphones, much as RIM will dominate productivity, leaving Palm and perhaps others to fill out 2-3 additional categories like personal information management, cloud-focused, etc.

The growth in smartphones is expected to come not only at the expense of feature phones, but of PC-class devices as well (fulfilling the so-called Post-PC prophecy).

Personally, we’re waiting for Apple to make an iPhone with the compute power of a MacBook Air that I can just dock into a MacBook shell when I need to do more serious work. Cloud storage, mobile compute power, dockable productivity. That’s the future we’d like…

[via MacRumors]

According to NPD, Apple’s iTunes now sells 25% of all music in the US. That’s up from 21% last year, and 14% the year before. Zoom. Zoom. Walmart, by contrast, is at 14% combining their real-world stores and online distribution.

In the strictly digital domain — which continues to gain share — iTunes accounts for 69% of downloadable music, with Amazon trailing at 8%.

Those numbers, in case they don’t smack anyone immediately in the face, are HUGE. Despite the jump to $1.29 for – quote unquote – premium music, the shift to DRM-free, combined with on-device downloads for the iPhone and iPod touch, might just be enough to keep the juggernaut rolling. Next up, we’ll see how Digital-45s and “cocktail” do for them…

[Marketwatch via iLounge]

The research firm Gartner reports that, for the second quarter of 2009, the iPhone continues to increase its market share on a world-wide level. In fact, it leads the way with the highest increase of market share, as sales increased by 10.5% from one year ago.

This increase of market share can be accounted for due to a few separate reasons. For starters, the early June price drop of the iPhone 3G to $99 was clearly a great way to move inventory while boosting sales. Apple’s product release timing is also plays a large role in their success. While releasing iPhone 3GS to the market at the very end of the second quarter of 2009 all of the initial sales were included in this report.

Everyone knows the iPhone took mind share early on, and there’s little doubt left they own profit share as well. It will be interesting to see where market share ultimately ends up…

[via MacRumors]

While I still firmly believe Apple’s primary currency is mindshare and their primary concern is profit share, analysts fill their plates with metrics and so it’s dinner time once again for smartphone marketshare reports!

And how is Apple doing? Up from 5.3 to 10.8 according to Gartner, while the smartphone market as a whole was up 12.7%.

Of course, when you don’t sell below-cost, margin eating goods, high market share goes hand in hand with high profit share, so Apple is no doubt enjoying both at the moment.

Other big winners included RIM’s BlackBerry, up from 13.3% to 19.9%. Falling in share were Nokia, down from 45.1% to 41.2% and “others” dropping from 28.1% to 18.8% (we have to figure Palm is hidden in there somewhere, and will no doubt rebound when the Pre hits the market starting June 8).

[via Apple Insider]

Quarterly results time, when the internet’s fancy turns to chicken-little predictions of how many percentage points this or that company slipped on which or what index of… who cares.

It’s not the first time we’ve mentioned this, and we’re certainly not the first people to have mentioned it. Yet, just like clockwork every 3 months analysts spout estimates and every blog and their commenters race to re-publish what in essence are meaningless numbers.

Cases in point: Apple and the iPhone.

Certainly, without much room for doubt or question, Apple’s market share and likely iPhone market share will be down this quarter. Newsflash: the market will likely be down this quarter. So if Apple is selling 1% or 2% less in terms of units, hellseven 10% less in terms of units, is that reason to panic?

If you’re an analyst or shockmedia type, likely “yes”, or if you’re manipulating stock for short term turnover rather than stable long term growth, “aye, ye scurvy dogs!”. But if you’re Apple?

No.

Historically, Apple doesn’t care about market share, they care about profit share. (They already own mind share, so we’ll remove that from the equation for now).

Apple is a public company that reports its margins, which typically run around 30%. Let that sink in for a moment. When Palm is selling millions of Centros and losing money hand over fist, when Nokia owns the international market and revenues plummet, when PC makers are racing each other to the bottom of the netbook price list to eek out razor-thin margins and gaining footprint only to hemorrhage cash, rumors of iPhone nanos and cheapo iNetbooks make as little sense for Apple as iSupply- and analyst-fueled headlines.

Sure, it’s nice for consumers to get low prices, but not at the expense of the companies going out of business and no longer giving us products or competition. Short term gain at long term loss isn’t sustainable. It’s the $0.99 fart app of the electronics space.

Apple reports earnings on April 22nd.

As part of the iPhone 3.0 Preview Event today, Apple announced that their iPhone OS, which powers both the iPhone and the iPod touch, is now on 30 million devices — including 17 million iPhones (presumable 2G and 3G) by December, 2008. And while we’re admittedly mathlexic around here, but that sounds like the first admission of iPod touch sales to us, which would peg them at 13 million?

Along with previous stats that have been guestimated (like 25,000 apps in the App Store), Apple also announced over 800 million app downloads (!!) to date, and 800,000 iPhone SDK downloads as well.

Staggering. Numbers. Indeed.

TiPb. Heart. Steve. Ballmer. Microsoft’s #2 has really become #1 in our CEOh-Snap department. See, he doesn’t just hit the mic, he pummels it to bloody, infuriating, borderline committable pulp. This time, however, D|All Things Digital brings us a little CEOh-Snap back in the form of Ballmer being on the receiving end for once, via an unhappy questioner at the CIO Summit:

“With platforms like the Google phone and iPhone coming out, it’s really tough to continue to stand behind Windows Mobile when our employees are bringing these consumer devices into our environments,” the questioner explained. “And in your presentation you put Windows Mobile right in the center there, but it was a phone that doesn’t work in America and an operating system that you haven’t released. I’m wondering what your commitment is to continuing to get newer versions of the operating system in our hands so that we don’t have to fight this battle on the ground.”

Ballmer’s come back? WinPho 6.5 this year is significant but not everything they want for higher-end phones; that’ll come next year(!) with WinPho 7. Microsoft is accelerating their efforts, and people still bought more Windows Mobile devices than iPhone last year anyway, so: nyah!

(Though we’d remind Mr. Ballmer that Apple’s international roll-out really only began in July 2008, more than half-way through the year, and he’s welcome to check the sales numbers for Q3 2008 to see how that worked out for everyone…)

According to Admob (via TUAW), Apple’s share of the mobile Web is big and might just be getting bigger:

Worldwide requests from Apple devices grew 28% month over month to 1.2 billion in January. Building on its strong December, iPod Touch growth outpaced iPhone growth in top markets. The iPod Touch now represents 40% of Apple requests, up from 20% in September.

People like great mobile browsers that can handle HTML, CSS, and AJAX, who’d have thunk it?

Of course, competing devices from Nokia, Palm, and Google, are beginning to use Apple’s WebKit in browsers of their own, Firefox keeps threatening to push their mobile Fennec client to release status, and RIM is inching the Bold towards usability, so can Apple and the iPhone/Safari team maintain their leading edge?

During Apple’s last conference call, Steve Jobs positively cooed about Apple’s iPhone passing RIM’s Blackberry in sales last month. If anyone had any doubts, Canalys says it’s so (for whatever that bag of analysis is worth). According to Apple Insider, they pegged the market as Nokia 46.6%, Apple 17.3, RIM 15.2, and Windows Mobile 13.6. (Google’s Android, of course, was not yet launched and Palm… er… Palm?)

While some have cited Bold delays, Storm warnings, an iPhone 3G honeymoon, and other reasons to explain Apple’s good fortunes last quarter, JD Powers 2008 Business Wireless Smartphone Customer Satisfaction Study gives an even more interesting answer: Business users like the iPhone better!

Blackberrys are okay, and Palms are teh sux, by contrast, according to the survey. The iPhone’s edge? ease of use, feature set and design. Engadget points out that the iPhone scored 5/5 on features, in spite of our ongoing complaints about the lack of cut and paste, A2DP, MMS, etc., etc. ad naseum infinitum.

ahem

So maybe, just maybe, users prefer a smaller set of features done delightfully well to a gobsmack of them cobbled together with near impenetrability?

Who’da thunk it?

Yesterday we covered some of the blogswarm surrounding the iPhone having (possibly!) already sold 10 million units, becoming the most popular smartphone in the US, and the 2nd most popular handset in the US.

Well, Windows Super-Siter Paul Thurrott retorts:

So this is just like Mac market share, in other words. It’s a subset of a subset of a market, picked to make the picture look even rosier than it really is. It’s US sales of smart phones to consumers over the counter at retail locations only, not “US sales of smart phones.” Most smart phones are sold to business users, not consumers, incidentally. And that means that “typical” smart phone sales are corporate sales, not consumer sales. This whole thing is a crock.

So, is Paul right? Are the sales numbers cherry-picked, smoke shrouded, mirror-skewed, squinted at slivers of fantasized reality? Or is he, a well known iPhone and Mac user, just trolling to get sites like ours to link to his blog? (D’oh!)

Confession: We don’t have any idea where Net Applications really gets their numbers from either. Ars Technica says they:

Collect [web metrics] data from an “exclusive on-demand network of live stats customers” compiled from some “160 million visitors per month”

But they could just as soon be reading runes or casting the bones. However they get them, if we can assume it’s a consistent measure, then iPhone is still on the rise, going from just under 0.2 in July to hitting 0.3 in August. Doesn’t sound particularly big? Well, it confirms the numbers Casey cited last week, and its out of all operating systems everywhere, and it’s for tiny little MobileSafari.

In other words, in the very big pond, our tiny 3G fish is putting on some serious weight.

ChangeWave is back with trends in intended smartphone buying for June 2008. The good? The iPhone has soared from 29% to 56% from a low this time last year of 18%. The bad? Rim has tumbled from 29% to 23% from a high of 33% last July. The ugly? Palm has held steady at 3%, having free fallen from 24% way back in late 2006.

The iPhone dominated almost all rounds, causing an overall increase in planned smartphone purchases to 10%. Satisfaction levels were through the roof at 78% (way above RIM’s 54% and trouncing Palm’s 29%)

Blackberry held on to the title of reigning email monster, with a holding-steady 42% ownership of that space, but Apple is making inroads even there, up to 11%.

The KO? Of those planning to buy a smartphone fully 50% plan on getting an iPhone over the Blackberry and Palm.

We expect Big John to jump in and end the slaughter any minute…

Read Via