What you need to know
- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty says that Apple is struggling to keep up with iPhone 12 Pro demand.
- Supply chain sources indicate Apple reallocated 2 million iPhone 12 mini units in favor of 2 million iPhone 12 Pro units.
We continue to believe that the iPhone will outperform expectations in the December quarter, as the mix shift to higher-end iPhone 12 models is a tailwind to ASPs and revenue growth. iPhone 12 Pro lead times remain extended far beyond any model launched in the past 4 years at 10 days. Lead times decreased from 22 days ~2 weeks ago as Apple ramps iPhone 12 production signaled by our iPhone supply chain team, led by Sharon Shih, recently raising March quarter iPhone 12 Pro builds by 2M units (which offset a 2M build reduction for the iPhone 12 mini)
Huberty further claims that lower-end iPhone 12 models "are performing better than in the US", estimating that shipments grew by 47% in the December quarter compared to last year. Huberty continues:
Similarly, data from Jiguang shows that the iPhone gained over 50bps of smartphone installed base share in China (Y/Y) in the month of December, reaching a new 18 month high of 20.3% market share, driven in large part by adoption of the iPhone 12, which has captured the most iPhone installed base share of any iPhone launched in China over the past 4 years through the first full month after being launched.
The report further states that supply chain sources in Taiwan indicated "a third consecutive month of accelerating Y/Y revenue growth."
The news follows reports that iPhone 12 production is expected to climb by some 30%, with Apple expected to make 96 million iPhones in 2021.