iPhone Sales Predictions: 14m in 2008... 24m in 2009?!

Steve Jobs announced Apple would sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Up until June, given waning sales, 3G expectations, and large-scale unavailability from Apple and carriers alike, it didn't look possible.

Enter $199. Jobs said it. I said it. Casey said it. Pretty much everyone and their blog said it. Now the analysts are saying it to:

Sales BOOM!

In total [RBC's Mike Abramsky] expects Apple to sell 14 million iPhones by the end of the year [...] For 2009 though Abramsky is only predicting sales of 24 million, a drastic difference from Piper Jaffray estimates of 45 million. Observes note however that Piper is factoring in unannounced sibling iPhones, which could make the device more affordable for the average person.

They're talking iPod scale numbers now, folks.

What do you think? Can Apple do with the iPhone what they did with the iPod?

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Rene Ritchie

Rene Ritchie is one of the most respected Apple analysts in the business, reaching a combined audience of over 40 million readers a month. His YouTube channel, Vector, has over 90 thousand subscribers and 14 million views and his podcasts, including Debug, have been downloaded over 20 million times. He also regularly co-hosts MacBreak Weekly for the TWiT network and co-hosted CES Live! and Talk Mobile. Based in Montreal, Rene is a former director of product marketing, web developer, and graphic designer. He's authored several books and appeared on numerous television and radio segments to discuss Apple and the technology industry. When not working, he likes to cook, grapple, and spend time with his friends and family.

  • Expected I suppose. Riddled with features which will appeal to pretty much everyone.
  • Those are the kind of numbers that Apple wants us to believe. They'll knock the cover off of the ball and will increase share price significantly as a result. AKA same old game.
  • Why ask why?
    45MM for 2009 is a tad or four optimistic and should assume significant swap out of current ipod users. Keep in mind sell-side equity research generally isn't worth the paper it is printed on so take it with a grain of salt.
  • I don't see how they will reach these numbers if the rumors regarding unsubsidized pricing are true. If Apple/ATT insist on $600 - $700 + a 2 year contract for anyone that doesn't qualify for ATT's upgrade pricing, they've just eliminated a very large part of the market. By all accounts that's what we are going to see at release. Hopefully within a few months they will come to their senses.
  • With the increasing popularity of iphones i think it's realistic that Apple will in fact sale 10 million + iphones in 2008. I disagree with Piper's 45 million estimation for 2009. I think 24 million sounds about right.