Is it the content or the pandemic that's fueling Apple TV+ use? Probably neither

Apple TV+ on Mac Source: Bryan M. Wolfe/iMore

Apple TV+ and Disney+ both have a reason to celebrate. Just six months in, both streaming video services are among the top five in the United States, according to one survey. For Apple TV+, in particular, this is huge news given its small library. Whether its early success continues will largely depend on two factors, only one which Apple can control.

In a survey of 10,000 users, Parks Associates found that Disney+ has a 25% market share vs. the nearly 10% for Apple TV+ during the first quarter of 2020. Netflix, with 56% of the market, is No 1, followed by Amazon Prime Video (43%) and Hulu (32%). CBS All Access, HBO Now, Showtime, ESPN+, and Starz round out the top 10.

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As Parks noted, the coronavirus pandemic, which forced millions of users to shelter in place, temporarily pushed up viewership numbers across the board. With the pandemic now slightly ebbing in most areas, along with the longer days of summer, I would expect we'll see lower viewership in the coming months. No doubt, the drop will be accompanied by subscription cancelations, affecting some content providers more than others.

Apple TV+'s place in the top 5 is perhaps the most tenuous for two reasons. First, is the arrival of HBO Max, which is almost certainly going to eat into everyone's market share if only because most current HBO subscribers now have the service readily available across multiple devices. Featuring existing content across various WarnerMedia properties plus original titles, HBO Max is much closer to Disney+ in terms of its design and broad library.

A more significant threat to Apple TV+'s market share is the calendar. Apple TV+ is currently free for 12 months for anyone who buys most Apple products, including iPhone and Apple TV. The first of those free promotions begin to expire in September. No doubt, many will cancel those subscriptions before that time, so they don't get charged the regular rate of $4.95 per month.

Apple TV+ was never going to have a vast content library after only a year, and the coronavirus has compounded this by shutting down most productions. Because of this, Apple would be wise to keep Apple TV+ free for another year for new device owners and see what the future holds.

If time machines existed, Apple would be wise to go back and buy Time Warner when it had a chance. Since that's not possible, it's best Apple TV+ remains mostly free for another year. That way, the company can keep Apple TV+ subscription numbers rising while also enlarging its available library.