Acer: iPad market share will drop from 100% to 20%

Acer chairman JT Wang, thinks that the iPad will drop from its current near 100% market share to somewhere around 20% or 30%. Like Asus, Acer's netbook business is feeling the pain of Apple's entry into the "third device category" with iPad. Since Apple is pretty much alone in that space right now -- despite a 10 year Tablet PC head start we should point out -- any form of real competition will begin splitting the market.

The question is will Acer, Asus, and the like compete the same way they've chose to with netbooks -- using ultra cheap, near zero-margin processors, operating systems, and commodity parts to grab tons of market share and leave the profit share for Apple, or will they try to go toe-to-toe with Cupertino on user experience and hardware?

Will the "pad" market end up being more like laptops, with netbooks on one end and MacBooks on the other, or more like smartphones where Apple, HTC, Motorola, and others all battle it out to be the best?

[UDN via Engadget]

Rene Ritchie

Editor-in-Chief of iMore, co-host of Iterate, Debug, Review, The TV Show, Vector, ZEN & TECH, and MacBreak Weekly podcasts. Cook, grappler, photon wrangler. Follow him on Twitter and Google+.

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Acer: iPad market share will drop from 100% to 20%

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Well, cheap usually sells. I think it will go pretty much like the smartphone market, with a big chunk for Apple but the majority split up between everybody else.

I'm sure we'll see a drop in iPad sales as others enter the tablet market, but I don't think it'll be as drastic as Mr. Wang would like to think. It's the old "iPod killer" syndrome. There have been so many devices that people have called iPod/Phone/Pad killers and none of them have been yet. As far as Windows tablets, it's not even the same thing. That's pretty much Windows with touch services tacked on as an afterthought, even in Windows 7. It's a terrible user experience,at least in my experience using tablet PCs.

As always Acer, Asus and the rest will not go toe-to-toe with Apple because they would be fighting a losing battle. If anyone if them put out a Tablet at the same price point as the iPad and it fails to perform at the same consistent level it will not sell forcing the price to plumet. Again leaving Apple at the top end. And as always Apple hardware has greater resale value than any other piece of hardware produced by the competition.

Another interesting factor will be the Android versus Chrome OS split. I'm counting out Microsoft, since they seem bent on self-destruction.

@ Webvex - I've thought that myself. It seems that Chrome OS and Android, both for netbooks/tablets is redundant. They should really bring it together more instead of intentionally fracturing their market.
I agree with firesign in that this is not an iPhone-situation w/market share. It's like the iPod. I don't think anything will be able to mount much competition and Windows 7 REALLY isn't the answer with viruses and very little in the way of applications developed for the touch screen.

Surely they've sold millions of tablets with all the devices below. Or did you mean netbook market? (i won't list all those). Which market does the ipad fit in anyways? I'd call it the "pad" market..a slate running a mobile OS. So how can tablet PC's (that only run windows, not WM or any other smartphone OS) have a 10 yr headstart in a new mobile OS pad market?
(below) From Wikipedia...where's ipad mentioned? I see the Dell Streak in there.
Major tablet PC Manufacturers include Acer, AIS, Apple Inc., Asus, Bosanova, Electrovaya, Fujitsu, Gateway, Inc.,G-NET, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Lenovo Group, LG Electronics, MobileDemand, Motion Computing,Motiontek, NEC, Panasonic, Quaduro-Systems, TabletKiosk and Toshiba.
Popular models include:
[edit] Slate
* AIS Rugged Tablet PC
* Archos 9
* Axiotron Modbook
* COWON Q5W
* Dell Streak
* Electrovaya Scribbler SC4100
* ExoPC
* Fujitsu Stylistic ST5010
* Fujitsu Stylistic ST5111
* Fujitsu Stylistic ST5112
* Fujitsu Stylistic ST6012
* Fujitsu Stylistic ST1010
* G-NET Rugged Tablet PC
* JLT8404 Field Tablet PC
* MobileDemand xTablet T7000 Rugged Tablet PC
* MobileDemand xTablet T8700 Rugged Tablet PC
* MobileDemand xTablet T8400 Refurbished Rugged Tablet PC
* Motion M1200, M1300, M1400, LE-Series, LS800, LE 1700
* Motion J3400 Semi-Rugged Tablet PC
* Motion C5 Mobile Clinical Assistant Tablet PC
* Motion F5 Rugged Tablet PC
* Motiontek x9
* Motiontek Ripple
* PaceBlade SlimBook 200 Series Tablet PCs
* Panasonic Toughbook 08
* Quadpad Slate Style Tablet PC
* Quadpad 3G HSDPA Tablet PC
* Samsung Q1 (Q1 Ultra)
* TabletKiosk Sahara Slate PC i400 series Tablet PCs
* TabletKiosk Sahara NetSlate a230T Tablet PC
* TabletKiosk eo a7330 Ultra-Mobile Tablet PCs
* TabletKiosk eo TufTab Rugged Ultra-Mobile Tablet PCs
* Xplore Technologies
* Viliv S5
* Viliv X70

[edit] Convertible
* Acer TravelMate C100/C200/C210/C300/C310
* Asus R1F
* Asus R1E
* ASUS Eee PC T91 and the derived multi-touch T91MT (8.9" Netbooks)
* Averatec C3500 Series
* Dialogue Flybook V5
* Dell Latitude XT/XT2
* Fujitsu LifeBook P1610, P1620, P1630 (8.9" Ultraportable)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T4020, T4210, T4220 (12.1" Thin and Light, Business)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T1010 (13.3" Thin and Light, Consumer)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T2010, T2020 (12.1" Ultraportable, Business)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T4310 (12.1" Thin and Light, Consumer)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T4410 (12.1" Thin and Light, Business)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T5010 (13.3" Thin and Light, Business)
* Fujitsu LifeBook T900 (13.3" Thin and Light, Business)
* Fujitsu LifeBook U810, U820, U2010 (5.6" Ultraportable)
* Gateway C-140X (aka S-7235/E-295C)
* Gateway C-120X (aka S-7125C/E-155C)
* HP TC4200/TC4400
* HP Compaq 2710p
* HP EliteBook 2700 series
* HP Pavilion tx1000 series
* HP Pavilion tx2000 series
* HP Pavilion tx2500 series
* HP TouchSmart tx2 series
* HP TouchSmart tm2 series
* Kohjinsha SX3 (8.9" Netbook)
* Lenovo ThinkPad X41 Tablet
* Lenovo ThinkPad X60 Tablet (known popularly as "X60t")
* Lenovo ThinkPad X61 Tablet (12.1" MultiView/MultiTouch XGA (1024x768) TFT)
* Lenovo ThinkPad X200 Tablet (12.1" WXGA (1280 x 800)) Released September 2008
* Lenovo ThinkPad X201 Tablet (12.1" WXGA (1280 x 800)) Released 2010
* LG XNote C1
* LG XNote P100(C1 Upgrade Model)
* LG LT-20-47CE
* Motiontek 180 switch
* MDG Flip Touchscreen Netbook (8.9" Tablet Netbook)MDG Flip
* Panasonic Toughbook 19
* Toshiba Portégé 3500/3505
* Toshiba Portégé M200
* Toshiba Portégé M400/405/700/750
* Toshiba Portégé R400/405
* Toshiba Satellite R10/R15/R20/R25
* Toshiba Tecra M4/M7
* Viliv S7
* Viliv S10

[edit] Hybrid
* Compaq TC1000
* HP Compaq TC1100
* Lenovo IdeaPad U1 (coming Summer 2010)
* Tatung Tangy
* Compaq Concerto

I think this draws more comparisons to the mp3 player market, in both markets the iPad has come out with a product that is the first to truly take off and make a market popular. In the phone market there were already many popular smart phones many that are still around, not many poular tablets out, and like him or not, Steve Jobs was right about netbooks, they are cheap underpowered laptops

@ cardfan - "Surely they’ve sold millions of tablets with all the devices below..."
Maybe a few million among all those variants, and mostly to corporate niche markets. I've only seen two in the wild since 2001. One at a meeting at Oracle (the guy was furiously trying to take notes on it with a freakin' stylus) and another at a pub in Monterey CA (sitting unused next to a bar patron.)
I wouldn't be surprised if iPad has already outsold all those cheesy clunky UMPCs already.

Acer has a near-zero chance. Their only hope is to sell into the cheapskate market that only needs email, browsing, and maybe texting. The people who made netbooks so popular. For actual consumption of music, movies, and TV, Apple already has a 9+ year lead. It's not cheap vs. expensive hardware or crappy vs. excellent software. It's iTunes. iTunes is Apple's not-so-secret weapon, like it or not. It's the reason for the original success of iPod, then iPhone, and now iPad. Especially if you consider that the App Store is a part of iTunes. Just wait for the next version of Apple TV - I think you'll see Apple expanding and leveraging iTunes (especially with HDTV resolution apps and iAds)...

I'm a big apple fan but I think android is gonna do what windows did to macs in the ninetys so sad but true.

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