Update: 10 Million iPhone March

10 Million iPhone March

Confusion. Confusion. Did Steve Jobs say Apple would sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, or during 2008?

What's the diff? About 6 months and a 3+ million head start.

See, the first scenario means Apple has roughly 18 months -- from the June 29th, 2007 release day to December 31st, 2008 -- to move the 10 million units. The second scenario allows for just 12 months -- from January 1st to December 31st, 2008 -- to move the same number. Clear? No? Don't worry. Even the Macalope is confused.

What's interesting is that while the first scenario -- the 18 months -- does count the initial 6 month honeymoon surge of 3+ million, that ends up making continued sales a little more pessimistic -- only 6+ million for the entire calendar 2008. The second scenario allows for increasing sales over time, something Apple and their shareholders no doubt expect as more countries, and 3G come online.

Speaking of dozens of more countries and a the most anticipated new gadget on the planet, Macworld's Jason Snell sums up his thoughts for the 10 Million iPhone March thusly:

In my back-of-the-envelope exercise, Apple sells 10.2 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. And I stress, these are extremely conservative numbers. If I had to place a bet, Iā€™d probably say that Apple will sell more like 2.2 million phones in the current quarter, more like 3 million in the following quarter, and five million in the holiday quarter. That guess adds up to almost 12 million iPhones in calendar year 2008.

Conservative is right. In fact, Apple is famous for being conservative, and they're predicting "only" 10 million.

My opinion? iPhone 3G will be a monster.

What do you think?

Have something to say about this story? Leave a comment! Need help with something else? Ask in our forums!

Rene Ritchie

EiC of iMore, EP of Mobile Nations, Apple analyst, co-host of Debug, Iterate, Vector, Review, and MacBreak Weekly podcasts. Cook, grappler, photon wrangler. Follow him on Twitter and Google+.

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Reader comments

Update: 10 Million iPhone March


I have to believe that Apple is going to reveal something on June 9 that nobody sees coming. With all the hype and attention centered on 3G, I tend to think that there will be some real gold nuggets in the SOFTWARE, such that current iPhone owners will be just as excited as potential new owners. I have no idea what lies beneath, so to speak, but I'm guessing it will be huge. ALSO, just think about all the non-disclosure agreements that these 3rd-party developers are under ... part of the real beauty may be finally getting to know what some of these major 3rd party releases will be.... You never know. Bring on June 9th!!!!

I am like a 7 year old on Christmas Eve... The anticipation is really starting to get to me ā€” I only hope I am not getting too excited... Knowing Apple as a company of flare though, I really can't see the June 9th news not being big. Like some other blogger said a little while back; Stevie doesn't get out of bed for anything less than HUGE news, and he is giving the presentation personally....
My dream come true would be the announcement of the 2nd gen iPhone, a release date in June, and the addition of MMS, cut and paste, multiple attachments per email, and video recording. Saving web images is already confirmed for FW2.0, so scratch that one... I know I am dreaming for a lot, but that is why it's called a dream, right?

I have a very interesting article on my page about the possible iPhone sales in 2008 www.lantinian.blogspot.com/2008/04/predicting-t-he-iPhone-sales-till-end...
The most interesting bit of info most of us are missing is that Apple reported 1.7 million phones sold untill March 6 not till the end of March.
The second thing is that iPhone sales have reali jumped after Zibri's unlock became popular at the end of February.
Also the March 6 event had increased the sales even more for the following reason.
- people know they can expect to update their current phones with a great software in the future
- developers buy phones so they can test their software
- enterprises buy phones so they can start testing it
In my opinion of the biggest news at Macworld will be that apple will have sold close to 10 million iPhones allready. Apple has started experiencing shortages of iPhones for few weeks now. Most Apple stores and the online store are out of stock.
In any case ckeck my article! See the pattern!
Send from my iPhone

I don't think iPhone 2.0 will be nearly the hit that iPhone 1.0 was. Why? 2.0 is primarily a software update with some added hardware (GPS, 3G) that people may not want or need. Unless something truly novel jumps out in iPhone 2.0 that has not hit the blogosphere just yet I don't see it. Think that in less than a year Apple has made a large-screen display with touch a standard for high-end phones, something Palm could not accomplish with their 10+ year head start. So what could 2.0 bring that would have nearly the same impact on the industry and compel people to rush in droves to buy? I already have an iPhone having been one of the early adopters, but see no reason to upgrade. In fact, I think I will prefer my 1.0 with the 2.0 software update as I will probably have superior battery life to the new iPhone in a smaller form factor. It's as if Moto introduced a fat RAZR in 2006 as their great hope. We all know how the Moto story turned out.