Will Apple’s iPhone Surpass Nokia by 2012?
Matt Miller over at our sibling site, NokiaExperts, takes issue with a prediction that Nokia will drop to 20% while Apple and the iPhone soar to 35% worldwide market share by 2012:
The iPhone has a singular form factor and has been doing incredible the first couple of years in existence. However, as more Android devices roll out, Windows Mobile 7 shows up in force, RIM keeps chipping away with the BlackBerry OS, and Palm struggles to find itself with WebOS I doubt Apple will pass up Nokia.
Matt also points out that Symbian Foundation could replace the ailing S60 by then as well, making the situation even more of an unknown.
Granted, in North America we sometimes forgot the goliath that is Nokia internationally. They’re huge. I’ve argued before, however, that raw market share isn’t exactly the same thing for Apple. They already have massive mind share, clearly setting the pace for smartphone development for the last couple years (multitouch, better user interfaces, centralized application stores, etc.), but they maintain a very high profit share as well.
Back in January, it was reported that while Apple ships nowhere near the amount of handsets that Nokia does, it makes double the profit. So, every percentage of market share Apple does gain comes not with loss leaders and commensurate financial losses, but with huge, brimming bags of money to shovel back into iPhone R&D and marketing.
Apple has also figured out how to take iPhone innovations and leverage them for Mac OS X (like the upcoming QuickTime X), and vice versa — something no other company seems able to do yet.
All that to say I agree with Matt’s overall assessment, it’s ridiculous and risky to try to look 3 years out in a market like smartphones. After all, no one really predicted the iPhone in 2006, and many pundits thought it would fizzle and fail in 2007. Now look at it.
Who knows what the market will be in 2012? Microsoft could have shipped Windows Mobile 7.x — RIM could have a new OS as well. Heck, Nokia could snap up Palm and be selling PreN99′s like hotcakes…
What’s your prediction?
| Tweet |
|
|
← Previously
iPhone 3GS — Twice the RAM… 10x the Impact?Leave a Reply
Note: Comments must be civil, respectful, and on-topic. If a comment does not add to the conversation, if it contains spam advertising, or inappropriate language or content, it will be removed. Comments containing links may be held for moderation. Relax, enjoy, and share in the discussion.
Nokia aint buying palm, infact no one is. Nokia is dying. The only major players in 2012 will be apple palm and rimm everyoneelse better step there game up.
Nokia will inevitably see a drop in their handset sales as more companies produce products for the networks Nokia installed and developed in most countries. Nokia only got a head-start in handset sales by developing their network installation business, so they will always be a part of mobile communications just a smaller part.
It’s irrelevent if apple’s market share surpasses nokia, they already beat nokia on revenue share. And the bottom line is what the shareholders really care about.
I agree with Zen because Nokia made a lot investment in Nokia Siemens Networks jv two years ago. I was a Nokia employee and made a move towards NSN because I couldn’t justify where Nokia devices roadmap is going. Nokia’s market share will drop because they have stoped innovating phones and now chasing Apple and RIM. They still have a better portfolio than apple because you can find a Nokia handset from 20 up to 1200 USD but Nokia since Apple will neve be the same.
Apple will surpass Nokia as long as AT&T gets dropped as the sole iPhone seller.
AT&T – WHERE THE HELL IS MMS/TETHERING FOR MY IPHONE? WHY AREN’T WE READING ANY STORIES ABOUT MMS/TETHERING AND HOLDING AT&T ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR BULLSH*T ACTIONS? STOP RETARDING THE IPHONE EXPERIENCE. IT WILL GET YOU NOTHING BUT A WORLD OF HURT IN 2010.
C’mon, Rene, it’s time to check in with AT&T and find out how much longer they are going to screw us.
I think the problem Apple has painted themselves into is we’re high end market. Let’s be real eventually all the features the iPhone has will be ubiquitous - Great web browser (check) - Free Apps (check) - Media player (check probably via pandora/slacker/lala) - PIM sync (myphone, smrtgrd, even wireless carrier)
As you can see with Palm it doesn’t really take a whole lot to flip the market. Apple won’t be able to dominate smartphones like they did with mp3 players because there are just too many ways people like to use their mobile devices. Some live and die by the phone, some by the web browser, some by messaging, some by business data apps, and then there’s the weird thing we haven’t seen or heard of yet.
I agree with A1by, the market is drastically changed since the first iPhone.
If you wanted to get into this smartphone market you had to go out and invent a Phone OS, for forever cow tow to Microsoft.
Not any more.
There are now 4 widely available smartphone OSs for phones: Symbian, Android, WebOS, WinowsMobile.
Symbian and WinMo have a lot of users, Android is growing users fast, and who knows what Palm will do with WebOS. Those guys always made more money licensing than producing.
So that just leaves Hardware uniqueness and quality as the sticking point.
With more and more handsets being built around the ARM processors it would appear that the hardware problem is getting pretty generic as well.
I think Apple’s lead is diminishing all the time. The thundering herd is catching up.
If the next iPhone release is SIMPLY an OS overhaul on the same platform, or a faster processor with the same OS, Apple falls further.
They need to re-invent the Interface, AND add a super speedy processor by this time next year.
The 3Gs may just be a stopgap. I hope so.
I can’t see Apple getting 35% market share, I really can’t. I’d love them to.
My opinion is that as some have stated, because of raw amount of handsets shipped…they will maintain leadership when compared to Apple. As long as there is only one variant of an Apple phone…there’s no logical way they could take over globally. Nokia has cheap handsets, mid-range, and high end. I can go get a Nokia out of a gas station for $20. The same can’t be said for anyone else besides Motorola and some off brand type stuff.
Apple would have to forgo their whole life choice of making top end products to beat out Nokia. But Apple will never do that as long as Mr. Jobs is there. And that’s not really a bad thing. BEcause as was stated…they get profit. And that’s what matters.
Apple will always have a Niche and while 35% of ppl would love an iPhone only 15-20% will be able 2 afford them but that’s all apple needs just like how apple will never take over the computer market yet, they’ll always have a profitable following
Apple makes smart phones, Nokia makes every kind of phone. Unless Apple decides to start making simpler phones, which I doubt, I cant see them beating Nokia.
Nokia has its work cut out in the high end but they have got decent hardware, they just need to get the software sorted out. If they can do that, everyone, not just Apple, should be afraid.