What you need to know

  • Investor's note claims Apple can expect strong 2020 performance.
  • Predictions in part driven by "good likelihood" of an iPhone SE 2 in 2020
  • iPhone 11 launch is off to a "good start"

An investor's note seen by AppleInsider from Cowen purports that Apple could see strong 2020 fiscal performance, in part driven by the release of the rumored "iPhone SE 2" and the success of the iPhone 11 launch.

According to the report, Cowen estimates Apple's iPhone sales forecasts for Q3 and 4 of 2019 to be 42.5 million units and 63 million units respectively:

while build estimates for the periods are set at 47 million and 65 million. If all of the builds in the second half of 2019 were to be recognized as sales by the end of the year, Cowen believes this would represent a unit upside of 7 million for the December quarter, or a total of 70 million units in the period.

Cowen's baseline forecast for the December quarter's earnings per share is $4.77, but selling 70 million to 72 million iPhones in the quarter could raise the EPS to $5.20 or $5.32.

Following rumors of an "iPhone SE 2" launch early in 2020, Cowen piles on with its own "field work" research seemingly suggesting one is on the way to replace the original iPhone SE. Cowen believes there is a "good likelihood" the iPhone SE 2 could enter production sometime in the first half of 2020, possibly as early as March.

For pricing, the iPhone SE 2 is envisioned to be below that of the iPhone XR, putting it somewhere in the range of $400 to $500 with storage capacities from 32 gigabytes to 128 gigabytes. The pricing would be needed, as it could "address price sensitive geographies such as India and China."

We have seen renewed rumors of an "iPhone SE 2" in recent weeks. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that a new phone (which almost certainly won't be called SE of any description) will feature Apple's A13 processor and 3GB of ram. The phone would be targeted mostly at the 100 million or so people still using the iPhone 6.