iPad forecasted to snatch market share from Android tablets this year

iPad forecasted to snatch market share from Android tablets this year

IDC has revised their forecast for the worldwide tablet market, suggesting that iOS will lead the way with 62.5% share, which is up from 58.2%. Meanwhile, IDC expects Android tablets to dip from 38.7% to 36.5%, while RIM's PlayBook will drop from 1.7% to 1%. Global shipments are projected to reach 107.4 million units this year, 137.4 million in 2013, and 22.1 million by 2016. IDC's Tom Mainelli commented on the progress of the iPad.

After a very strong launch of new products in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down. The addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices—moving the entry-level price down to $399 seems to be paying off as well. If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger.

Of course, one always has to take analyst projections with a grain of salt, especially when they're reaching years in advance, but the forecast for this year seems safe enough. It's definitely easy to imagine Apple gaining ground on the likes of the Amazon Kindle if they can pump out an affordable, smaller iPad to compete head-to-head. There are a lot of good reasons that could get Apple to make a 7-inch tablet.

How well do you guys think Android will compete for the rest of the year? Is it a give that the new iPad will be able to hold its own until the next iPad starts peeping out its head? Does Apple really need t

Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OSHistorical and Forecast* 2010 - 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts

Source: IDC

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Simon Sage

Editor-at-very-large at Mobile Nations, gamer, giant.

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iPad forecasted to snatch market share from Android tablets this year

19 Comments

There are a lot of very young, and senior citizens out there with limited arm strength and limited funds for a full sized ipad. Apple doesn't need a smaller ipad to remain competitive, they need it so more peope ( seniors, children, and financially challenged) can enjoy using an ipad. One size does not fit all. A smaller size would open up this platform to a lot more peope.

Great point. I think the author used horrible working in his question...of course Apple doesn't NEED to release a 7" tablet to STAY competitive, when they are increasing their market share.
That said, I hope they do...because I'd buy one! I just hope they offer more than a budget version. Give me a 7" tablet with all the bells and whistles.

I wonder what the screen resolution would be, though? There's no way they could cram 2048x1536 into a 7" display, while using the older iPads' 1024x768 would put it in the 170ppi range, much lower density than the new iPad. Somehow I don't see them fragmenting the resolutions again.

and why not - they are fragmenting the features available to all devices more and more w/ every new iOS release, and then trying to hide/cover it up by saying everyone gets the same iOS version :P

Doesn't look like these forecasts take Windows 8 into account at all, which is a glaring mistake. And forecasting mobile device sales out to 2016? That's a ridiculous notion. In 2009 did these folks also predict RIM to maintain their dominant market lead in 2012? I'm guessing so.

Wow, that's even more confusing. They think Windows Phone will outsell iPhone in 2016, but Windows 8 tablets won't even make a dent in the market?
I think your comment about taking this with a grain of salt is too kind.

Totally disagree. Saw a dude at the airport last week with a Capitulate......or was it a Computate?
Heard they are selling by the tens of tens.....

Android's share of the Tablet market is bigger than Apple's share of the smartphone market.

@Pete. Point being?
Thought this was a post on iPad, NOT iPhone. And you assume I own an iphone.......
Back on topic. Still waiting for that iPad "killa". Fire had a chance but has gone down in flames. What is the next flavor of the month?

I didn't think the point was that difficult to grasp. Posters like you are belittling Android's tablet share when in fact they have a larger share of the tablet market than the iPhone does in the smartphone market. I don't care what you own, and wasn't even responding to you in the first place. It's a comment on the ignorance of some of the people on here. Are you following now?

You didn't include the specific quotes, but IDC still refers to iPad as a "media tablet". An artificially broad category that could include portable TV sets, dedicated e-readers (e.g. Sony Reader), and other non-general-computing devices. It makes iPad's slice of the pie look smaller by semantically tweaking the size of the pie.
But in another report, IDC includes "Windows tablets" in overall PC market numbers. It really smells like IDC is trying to spin things. To make the PC market look as though it isn't affected by iPad sales, by grouping iPad with non-PC devices yet dumping "Windows tablets" into the legacy PC mix.
And why would IDC want to prop up PC sales numbers? Because their parent corporation is IDG. And IDG publishes 300 magazines around the world, including Computerworld/InfoWorld, ITworld, CIO, Macworld, Network World, and PC World. Only one of those is Apple-friendly. The rest cater to the IT establishment, who are heavily invested in maintaining the status quo. That explains everything.

Ah, thanks for that, now it's becoming clearer to me. But it may not be just about "propping up PC numbers", but more about Windows tablets having full-pc capabilities. Maybe.
Regardless, the main competition for Windows tablets will be iOS and Android, so that is the category they belong in.

I think Android is going to be A-OK w/ their new Nexus line coming - including tablets at a very nice price point.. and its funny how these same news stories used to be about the iphone, now they have to focus on the ipad after Android has done so much damage in the phone market space. Everyone loves words like "Ecosystem" but it looks like Google and Amazon are both providing pretty good "Ecosystems" now ;)

Hey Simon,
Can you or IDC prepare a chart that shows how accurate IDC predictions have been year by year as they forecast into the future? I have a hard time believing they have any clue what could happen more than two years out. History of their success should bear this out for us.
1yr- 60% correct
2yrs- 30% correct
3yrs- 2% correct
4yrs- nobody that worked at IDC four years ago is still there..

The headline is accurate, but the body of the article does not fully explain the context. IDC's long-term forecasts are worthless, but their forecast for the remaining half of this year should be fairly close. Summary:
iPad +9.1 million units
Android tablets -6.8 million units
"When we take the new 2012 Google Android tablet market share forecast of 36.5% and multiply it by the new 107.4 million unit forecast for the market, we get 39.2 million units.
That 39.2 million number is a whopping 16.4% decrease from the 46 million unit forecast from March 13.
Likewise, IDC's forecast for Apple iOS units has gone from 58 million units to 67.1 million units (62.5% X 107.4 million units = 67.1 million units) -- a boost of 15.5%!"
Source: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/technology/articles/aapl-goog-amzn-bk...

If Microsoft releases a tablet it will be just as amazing and stable as windows, so they can keep that garbage too.