Analyst Predictions: iPhone on Verizon, Updated Apple TV, Subscription Video, Peace on Earth
Stalwart Apple analyst Gene Munster is back, this time predicting the iPhone will hit multiple US carriers within an year -- specifically Verizon -- as well as expanded video offerings from iTunes -- including a subscription service akin to satellite or cable, and an updated Apple TV to go with it.
Oh, and flying unicorns.
We joke. Slightly. Of course we want all these things too -- and more -- but we have a feeling that that's all there is to some of these analyst reports -- a bit of logical deduction combined with what any of us would want:
So, expect it only when you see it.
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Rene Ritchie is one of the most respected Apple analysts in the business, reaching a combined audience of over 40 million readers a month. His YouTube channel, Vector, has over 90 thousand subscribers and 14 million views and his podcasts, including Debug, have been downloaded over 20 million times. He also regularly co-hosts MacBreak Weekly for the TWiT network and co-hosted CES Live! and Talk Mobile. Based in Montreal, Rene is a former director of product marketing, web developer, and graphic designer. He's authored several books and appeared on numerous television and radio segments to discuss Apple and the technology industry. When not working, he likes to cook, grapple, and spend time with his friends and family.
The first LTE iPhone will be the first multi-carrier one
The reason? It's not that Apple doesn't like Verizon, it's just that no one can port their phone to Verizon right now. It would be terrible PR for Apple to let Verizon have the iPhone and everyone who wants to move has to buy a brand new one with a CDMA chip. On top of that, Apple would be making a phone that's a dead end within a few years.
The phone controller in the iPhone is exactly one chip.
Those chips cost pennies. An Apple can get CDMA ones from the same source and the same size as their current GSM ones. They wouldn't have to do any circuit board changes.
Even the radios are the same, just different frequencies. (The radios in cell phones aren't too specific, they are driven by the phone controller. Thats what makes them GSM or CDMA. In any event a radio transceiver is also cheap device available from the current manufacturer in many flavors.)
So Apple could get a CDMA phone thru development and certification in 6 weeks or less. No problem
And contrary to your last assertion, Apple would LOVE to sell customers a new phone rather than have them move their old phone to Verizon, and having Verizon to blame or it is just that much sweeter!
But I do agree that LTE deployment time seems the logical target for this to happen. All the big carriers are moving to LTE. (Out of the iPhone, off of the cell tower, Nothing but Net!).
Of course we will ALL be upgrading our phones by then, so Apple gets to sell us all new phones yet again!!
Its widely known that the iPhone does not necessarily lead to carrier profits. In fact just the opposite is true: the iPhone stunts carrier profits.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/story/0,28348,25945448-5014239,00.html Apple's deal with AT&T is so lucrative for Apple that they, and the other carriers are essentially transferring huge chunks of their profit to Apple in exchange for the exclusivity, but that exclusivity has not paid them back.
With competition, carriers are not going to be willing to sell the farm to fill Apple's coffers. They will not be willing to subsidize the phone as deeply as a carrier with exclusivity who knows you really can't walk away.
So something has to give.
Apple will have to reduce prices. Or the Carriers will have to increase prices.
Although Apple is loathe to reduce prices, Munster already predicts a 10% reduction in price per unit.
(God knows Apple has room in their profit margin to do this. Their cost is around $178 for a phone that retails without subsidy for north of $500. Increased volume will bring decreased per-unit manufacturing costs).
Personally I see Apple eating a bigger discount. They don't have the playing field to themselves any more. The Pre, 2nd and 3rd generation Android, and the 800 pound Gorilla (Nokia) are now in the game. Apple can't afford to play "Take it or Leave it" any more. I predict close to 25% cut in iPhone volume pricing.
But if Munster is right, 10% won't mean much saving for carriers, and I suspect all carriers will choose to raise initial prices, and keep subsidy lower.
Hope that the design again nice mobilphone for all users.
I don't think we'll see a Verizon iPhone until 2012-2013. T-Mobile will be next. Apple already deals with the company for international models and they're expanding to 3G.