Analyst Predictions: iPhone on Verizon, Updated Apple TV, Subscription Video, Peace on Earth

iPhone Analyst vs. Magic 8 Ball

Stalwart Apple analyst Gene Munster is back, this time predicting the iPhone will hit multiple US carriers within an year -- specifically Verizon -- as well as expanded video offerings from iTunes -- including a subscription service akin to satellite or cable, and an updated Apple TV to go with it.

Oh, and flying unicorns.

We joke. Slightly. Of course we want all these things too -- and more -- but we have a feeling that that's all there is to some of these analyst reports -- a bit of logical deduction combined with what any of us would want:

"For various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model," Munster said. "In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40 percent range vs. about 15 percent in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens). We believe Apple is seeing the increased unit sell-through more than offset the slightly (~10 percent) deteriorated economics per unit involved in non-exclusive agreements."

So, expect it only when you see it.

Footnote: 

Rene Ritchie

Editor-in-Chief of iMore, co-host of Iterate, Debug, Review, The TV Show, Vector, ZEN & TECH, and MacBreak Weekly podcasts. Cook, grappler, photon wrangler. Follow him on Twitter and Google+.

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There are 19 comments. Add yours.

flyingember says:

We are not going to see an iphone on Verizon until 4G is well along for both voice and data.
The first LTE iPhone will be the first multi-carrier one
The reason? It's not that Apple doesn't like Verizon, it's just that no one can port their phone to Verizon right now. It would be terrible PR for Apple to let Verizon have the iPhone and everyone who wants to move has to buy a brand new one with a CDMA chip. On top of that, Apple would be making a phone that's a dead end within a few years.

sting7k says:

I can't wait for the day the iPhone hits Verizon and their network is brought down the same as AT&T's. We use far more data than any other smart phone. Verizon might even be worse if there are not just AT&T deserters but people who have been holding out just for Verizon. All those number ports and activations and people jaming that EVDO data network getting apps and checking stuff out. That launch day will bring me lulz when all the complaints start flooding the blogs.

sting7k says:

Agree with Kevin, but it will still have to have CDMA. LTE isn't going to be every where over night. Might only hit a few markets in it's first year and that won't fly only being able to use your iPhone in a few cities. But at least it will give it longer life by having the LTE in there. At least people could then survive the length of their contracts as LTE expands on Verizon.

Memnautikus says:

I wonder what they mean about subscription tv. Maybe having a full directv over wifi? I'd love that.

Cool says:

If the iPhone did move to Verizon don't expect it to be any cheaper than At&t ... If anything it will be slightly more expensive .... :(

Lolipopjones says:

expect Verizon to come out with Data plans where you buy the amount of Data you use. Lowell McAdam already said in an Interview that with LTE vzw will be killing unlimited data plans.

Therealtruth says:

@the differences between AT&T and verizon are the same as those between democrats and republicans.....

Hakala says:

I think it would possibly make sense. I know I've taken the other side in previous articles but I think I'm about to have a change of heart. I know. It's a little drastic but I'm side swapping. I think apple should let the iPhone be free. [Greenpeace style? Hm nah] Bring the iPhone to tmobile and maybe even verizon. I think I broke a sweat saying that.

Hakala says:

Also, I say tmoblie because in a way, it could be easier getting things set up. Price wise anyways. Tmobile already has te iPhone in other countries does it not? This could give Apple a little leverage if tmobile doesn't compromise on what apple wants. Because 100% of the time, Apple gets, what Apple wants. 98% of the time.

Yobad says:

I honestly don't think too many people will leave AT&T if apple signs on with the other three major carriers simply because they will have to end their contract AND buy a whole new phone so it works on that carrier. And sure they could use their current iPhones on t-mobile but since t-mobiles 3g network uses higher frequencies, the people coming from AT&T would be stuck on EDGE only unless they purchased a whole new phone. However apple signing the iPhone to other carriers could be a problem for future subscribers and those whose contract is up and a wanting to upgrade to the newest iPhone.

icebike says:

@Kevin:
The phone controller in the iPhone is exactly one chip.
Those chips cost pennies. An Apple can get CDMA ones from the same source and the same size as their current GSM ones. They wouldn't have to do any circuit board changes.
Even the radios are the same, just different frequencies. (The radios in cell phones aren't too specific, they are driven by the phone controller. Thats what makes them GSM or CDMA. In any event a radio transceiver is also cheap device available from the current manufacturer in many flavors.)
So Apple could get a CDMA phone thru development and certification in 6 weeks or less. No problem
And contrary to your last assertion, Apple would LOVE to sell customers a new phone rather than have them move their old phone to Verizon, and having Verizon to blame or it is just that much sweeter!
But I do agree that LTE deployment time seems the logical target for this to happen. All the big carriers are moving to LTE. (Out of the iPhone, off of the cell tower, Nothing but Net!).
Of course we will ALL be upgrading our phones by then, so Apple gets to sell us all new phones yet again!!

icebike says:

@Cool:

If the iPhone did move to Verizon don’t expect it to be any cheaper than At&t … If anything it will be slightly more expensive

This is very true, but not ONLY for Verizon.
Its widely known that the iPhone does not necessarily lead to carrier profits. In fact just the opposite is true: the iPhone stunts carrier profits.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/story/0,28348,25945448-5014239,00.html

"According to the research we have conducted on the operators, not one of these have increased their market share, revenue, or their earnings as a result of introducing the iPhone. On the contrary, some operators have sent out profit warnings because of the iPhone."

Apple's deal with AT&T is so lucrative for Apple that they, and the other carriers are essentially transferring huge chunks of their profit to Apple in exchange for the exclusivity, but that exclusivity has not paid them back.
With competition, carriers are not going to be willing to sell the farm to fill Apple's coffers. They will not be willing to subsidize the phone as deeply as a carrier with exclusivity who knows you really can't walk away.
So something has to give.
Apple will have to reduce prices. Or the Carriers will have to increase prices.
Although Apple is loathe to reduce prices, Munster already predicts a 10% reduction in price per unit.
(God knows Apple has room in their profit margin to do this. Their cost is around $178 for a phone that retails without subsidy for north of $500. Increased volume will bring decreased per-unit manufacturing costs).
Personally I see Apple eating a bigger discount. They don't have the playing field to themselves any more. The Pre, 2nd and 3rd generation Android, and the 800 pound Gorilla (Nokia) are now in the game. Apple can't afford to play "Take it or Leave it" any more. I predict close to 25% cut in iPhone volume pricing.
But if Munster is right, 10% won't mean much saving for carriers, and I suspect all carriers will choose to raise initial prices, and keep subsidy lower.

Ben PIckering says:

Ahh... Yes... TV subscriptions would fit with the warning some Microsoft bloke gave recently AND the rumors about video streaming purchaced iTunes content... This is starting to look possible and exciting...

hans says:

Apple are the future Seller for mobilphone.
Hope that the design again nice mobilphone for all users.
Greetings Hans.

flyingember says:

icebike-
I don't think we'll see a Verizon iPhone until 2012-2013. T-Mobile will be next. Apple already deals with the company for international models and they're expanding to 3G.

Tony says:

I was on verizon and had 2 data plans 1 for me 1 for my girl and it was $30 moré than we pay Now on ATT. can't wait to see how much verizon charges for the iPhone data plan. I have much better sevice now too by the way, or maybe it was just the peace of sh*t BB storm that suked in any case I'll stick too AT&T

Tom says:

I just wish AT&T would roll out 3G where I travel. And it could deal with dead zones in metro Chicago as well.

Drake says:

Am I the only one psyched for the flying unicorns? :D

YourMobileGuru says:

LTE all not roll out over night no. Nor will t immediately replace EVDO. They will coexist for several years to come. In fact initially it will be data cards only.