3G Drop Pool: When's Your Pick? - Wait-a-Thon!


It's that season again. No, not football -- Apple iPhone rumor release season. The fans smell 3G. The pundits smell 3G. The press smells 3G. And boy do the analysts smell them some Apple cooked 3G.

Risking feet to fall firmly in mouth, the bold, brash predictions are now coming hot and heavy. The rumors are flying faster than Vista downgrades. Everyone knows its coming. (It's gotta be coming!) And while no one outside the Jobspod knows precisely when, the interweb pools are filling up fast and furious.

Starting now and working back, Macrumors does some myth-on-math and determines that "Apple will announce before the FCC leaks" amounts to a 6 week shipping window. So if Apple announces today, and the iPhone 3G shows up in the FCC database tomorrow, it could be shipping as soon as late May. If it announces in June, then it could clear FCC by July/August.

Uncle Walt, the Wall Street Journal's own Mac Daddy, went and brought'nd'it saying we'll see the iPhone 3G within 60 days. That's early June.

iPod Observer brings us a pic of what may be the 3G iPhone in the wild, all dressed up in glossy Vader black. The iPod Nano fatty pics leaked online immediately prior to launch, could this be another breach of the nigh-impenetrable Apple vault? If so, a special Jobsnote would have to be around the corner... Like WWDC?

Every Apple-site and their feed server have been reporting wide spread shortages of the current iPhone at Apple Stores, and a longer-than-usual wait of 5-7 days for shipping online. A sign of inventory clearing ahead of a new release? Despite denials, Apple's done that before. But Roughly Drafted disagrees, believing its simply an incredible increase in gray market demand around the globe.

AT&T Mobility's CEO may or may not be part of the Jobsian inner-circle, but he's saying their integrated product line will be 3G in a matter of months, and when pressed on the iPhone, he repeated his repetition repeatedly. A matter of months. June is certainly a month that matters. Unfortunately, so are July through December.

Shaw Wu of American Technology Research claims some inside checks on supply chains show an iPhone 3G heading our way in June or July, a quarter earlier than he believes was/is to be expected.

Macrumors also lays out their evidence and makes their case for a June release. And Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray agrees, and tosses in a lower-price iPhone, and a mind-boggling 45 million units prediction to boot.

Some EGDE 2.75 technology promises notwithstanding (now with half the slow!), Gartner's Kim Dulany thinks Apple has already ordered 10 million OLED equipped iPhone 3Gs from their suppliers. Arik Hesseldahl of BusinessWeek believes there's 3G fire in the current out-of-stock Apple Store smoke signs.

Batting next-to-zero on current generation iPhone speculation also hasn't stopped Digg's Kevin Rose from stepping up to the plate and swinging for the sky with predictions for a June launch with built in GPS and iChat.

Whew! If that's not enough 3G goodness for you, be sure to check out the Phone Different archives for more rumors, analyst expulsiveness, and general OMG 3G!!11 merriment.

Personally, I've taken WWDC as my pick for the iPhone 3G announcement pool. What's your pick?

Have something to say about this story? Leave a comment! Need help with something else? Ask in our forums!

Rene Ritchie

EiC of iMore, EP of Mobile Nations, Apple analyst, co-host of Debug, Iterate, Vector, Review, and MacBreak Weekly podcasts. Cook, grappler, photon wrangler. Follow him on Twitter and Google+.

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Reader comments

3G Drop Pool: When's Your Pick? - Wait-a-Thon!


Announcement in June... I highly doubt they will put it out around the one year anniversary of the iPhone and the 2.0 firmware... it would steal all of the thunder. I'm still sticking by September release date.

It looks like Palm still need to hire more Apple execs. Since they still can't put out an UPDATED (not new design) treo, but apple looks like it is able to do significant updates every year! Oh SNAP!

Announced in June
Released in September
Can't wait!
Actually, I can't wait for the v2 firmware but 3G would be nice too.

[quote=Dyvim;1429882]Announced in June
Released in September
Can't wait!
Actually, I can't wait for the v2 firmware but 3G would be nice too.
Specifics? I just want it clear when I win. :D

The drum beat gets louder for 3G. I've actually been very happy with my current iPhone but the extra speed in the wild (a very limited urban type of wild) would be a nice bonus. Whenever it happens though, I just hope it doesn't sport the glossy black back of the spy photos. I have a hard enough time keeping smudges to a minimum on the front of my iPhone I certainly don't want to have to keep wiping down the back two. Not to mention scuff city if you ever drop that thing, and who hasn't dropped their iPhone yet?